指引乐观、满载扩产，芯片巨头缘何绩后反跌？

Core Viewpoint - SMIC reported strong revenue and profit growth but experienced a stock price decline post-earnings announcement, indicating market skepticism despite positive financial results [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, SMIC achieved revenue of 17.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.22 billion yuan, up 23.2% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 0.15 yuan [4][6]. - For the full year 2025, SMIC's revenue reached 67.32 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.5% increase, while net profit was 5.04 billion yuan, a 36.3% rise [5][6]. Margin and Cost Analysis - Q4 gross margin was 19.2%, showing a decline both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, primarily due to increased depreciation costs [5]. - Depreciation and amortization expenses for Q4 amounted to 1.07 billion USD, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.4% and a year-on-year increase of 26.0% [5]. Capacity and Production - SMIC's production capacity for 8-inch wafers reached 1.059 million pieces per month by year-end 2025, an increase of approximately 110,000 pieces year-on-year [12]. - The average capacity utilization rate for the year was 93.5%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 maintaining a high rate of 95.7% [12]. Market Outlook - SMIC provided an optimistic outlook for 2026, expecting revenue growth to exceed the global industry average, with capital expenditures projected to remain similar to 2025 levels [14][17]. - The company anticipates stable operations in Q1 2026, with revenue expected to remain flat quarter-on-quarter and gross margin projected between 18% and 20% [15][18]. Product Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, revenue from smartphones accounted for 21.5%, computers and tablets for 11.8%, consumer electronics for 47.3%, and industrial and automotive products for 12.2% [10][11].