摩根大通：白银今年均价81美元，“泡沫还没挤干净”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that silver prices are establishing a higher bottom for 2026, but the top remains unclear, with global demand surge presenting both upside and downside risks for price predictions [1][7]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Analysts indicate that silver is attempting to emerge from the shadow of gold in 2026, but its success is uncertain. The gold-to-silver price ratio is currently at its closest level in 15 years, despite silver's practical value in industrial processes [2][4]. - The average price forecast for silver in 2026 is set at $81 per ounce, with the highest expected average price in Q4 reaching $85 [5][10]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recent price fluctuations are significantly influenced by U.S. tariff policies, particularly the review of key minerals under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which has led to temporary price drops followed by rebounds [2][8]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman caused a sharp decline in silver prices by 27%, while gold prices fell by 10% [2][8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Silver is primarily mined as a byproduct of other metals, which limits its production elasticity in response to price increases. Additionally, its role in industrial applications, such as solar panel manufacturing, is crucial [3][9]. - The potential adoption of silver-free technologies in solar manufacturing could pose a long-term risk to silver demand, as industrial applications account for approximately 60% of total silver demand [9][10]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - The lack of central bank support for silver, unlike gold, makes its price harder to determine, and the gold-to-silver price ratio may have further room to rise [4][10]. - Analysts express caution regarding short-term investments in silver until recent price bubbles are adequately addressed, with Asian investment demand being a significant catalyst for the silver market [10].