Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-12 02:01Group 1 - Bank of America Securities reports a divergence in market views regarding Hong Kong property prices, with offshore investors being more optimistic compared to local and mainland investors who focus on valuation adequacy [1] - The firm has raised target prices for several real estate stocks by an average of 10% based on a narrowing discount to net asset value, reflecting strong performance in Hong Kong development projects and high-end retail sales [1] - Bank of America Securities favors developers such as Cheung Kong Holdings and Sino Land due to their earnings sensitivity to property price growth, while preferring rental stocks like Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties for their high dividend yields and resilience in mainland luxury retail [1] Group 2 - The firm predicts a 10% to 15% increase in property prices over the next two years, noting that developers have already factored in a 15% to 20% growth in transaction volume into their stock prices [2] - Two major risks are identified: limited room for further cuts in the best lending rate by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the potential return to floating mortgage rates if bond market rate cuts do not materialize by the end of 2026 [2] - Stagnation in median household income and a year-on-year decline in approved immigration visas for 2025 may restrict further price increases in the property market [2]