AI算力竞赛引爆超级订单！液冷龙头Vertiv单季订单暴增252%，2026业绩指引超预期

Core Insights - Vertiv has reported an exceptional quarterly performance driven by a surge in organic orders, which increased by 252% year-over-year and 117% quarter-over-quarter, leading to a backlog of $15 billion, more than double the previous year [2][4][19] - The company has provided an ambitious financial outlook for 2026, projecting adjusted diluted EPS of $6.02, representing a 43% increase, and organic sales growth of 28% to approximately $13.5 billion [5][6][30] - The management emphasized that the data center construction supercycle is still in its early stages, and Vertiv's market position is strengthening [2][4] Order Growth - The organic order volume for Q4 2025 reached a staggering 252% year-over-year, with a book-to-bill ratio of 2.9, indicating strong demand [4][19] - The backlog has reached $15 billion, reflecting a robust market confidence in Vertiv's delivery capabilities [4][19] - CEO Gio Albertazzi dismissed concerns about potential irregularities in order patterns, asserting that the large orders are a result of customer trust in Vertiv's capabilities [4][19] 2026 Financial Guidance - Vertiv expects adjusted diluted EPS for 2026 to be $6.02, indicating a 43% growth, with organic sales projected to grow by 28% [5][6][30] - The Americas market is anticipated to be the primary growth engine, with an expected sales growth rate of over 30% [7][30] - The company plans to increase capital expenditures from 2%-3% of sales to 3%-4% by 2026 to support this growth [8][20] Regional Performance - The Americas region showed a remarkable organic growth of 46% in 2025, while EMEA experienced a 14% decline, though signs of recovery are noted [7][18][30] - Management expressed optimism about the EMEA market, likening its recovery to a spring being released, indicating improved market sentiment [7][18] - The Asia-Pacific region saw a 9% decline, but growth is expected to accelerate in India and other areas [18][30] Technology and Market Position - Vertiv defended its position in thermal management, emphasizing the continued necessity of CDU (Cooling Distribution Unit) despite advancements in chip temperature tolerance [7][8] - The company is focusing on expanding its capacity and enhancing its product offerings, including integrated solutions like OneCore and SmartRun [21][22] - The service segment is a key competitive advantage, with lifecycle service orders growing over 25% year-over-year [23][86] Operational Strategy - Vertiv plans to cease quarterly reporting of actual orders and backlog data, opting to disclose this information annually to reduce volatility and focus on long-term delivery capabilities [8][9][19] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and collaborating closely with suppliers to manage material inflation pressures [20][30] - The management is confident in converting the backlog into revenue and EPS growth, with a focus on operational efficiency and strategic investments [30][54]