泡泡玛特(9992.HK):IP多极发展 产能与门店持续扩张 中期增长点清晰
Ge Long Hui·2026-02-11 06:38

Core Viewpoint - As a globally scarce trendy IP platform, the company has clear performance growth points in the medium term, and despite short-term fluctuations in third-party data, the outlook remains positive for the company [1] Group 1: IP Growth - The company is expected to maintain a growth trend in its IP segment, with a stable performance from the leading IP Labubu and significant contributions from emerging IPs like Xingxingren and Crybaby [2][3] - Labubu, despite a high base, has the potential for continued revenue growth in 2026 due to its stable global influence, expanded production capacity, and improved overseas supply chain and logistics [2][3] - The second-tier IPs, such as Xingxingren, are showing significant growth, with the latest series performing well and expected to drive overall growth [3][4] Group 2: Production Capacity - In 2025, the company faced production capacity limitations but is projected to meet market demand by December with a monthly capacity nearing 50 million units [3] - The company is expected to start 2026 with a high production capacity, allowing for the full release of potential growth [3] Group 3: Store Expansion - The company is in a stable expansion phase for overseas stores, with significant room for growth, particularly in the U.S. market where the number of stores is still low compared to established brands [5] - As of January 28, the total number of overseas stores reached 187, with ongoing expansion in various regions, indicating a sustained growth trajectory [5] Group 4: Product Innovation - Continuous product innovation is being validated, with new interactive features being introduced in products, enhancing user engagement [4][6] - The company plans to launch new product categories, such as mini BJD, which are expected to broaden the usage scenarios and enhance customer loyalty [6][7] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 39.87 billion, 52.00 billion, and 61.59 billion for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 205.8%, 30.4%, and 18.4% respectively [8] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 13.48 billion, 17.68 billion, and 21.72 billion for the same period, with significant growth rates [8]