Ge Long Hui·2026-02-12 02:29Core Viewpoint - Recent interactions with investors indicate a divergence in market views regarding the outlook for Hong Kong property prices, with offshore investors being more optimistic compared to local and mainland investors who are focused on valuation adequacy [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Offshore general investors are more optimistic about the future of Hong Kong property prices, while local, mainland, and real estate fund investors are more concerned about whether valuations are fully reflected [1] - Overall, investors seem willing to overlook recent lower yields, predicting a multi-year cyclical recovery in the real estate market [1] Group 2: Price Target Adjustments - Based on the narrowing discount to net asset value, the company has raised the average target prices of several real estate stocks by 10% to reflect strong performance in Hong Kong development projects and high-end retail sales [1] - The company has adjusted earnings per share forecasts for Hysan Development and Sun Hung Kai Properties for the fiscal years 2025 to 2028 based on updated project accounting timelines [1] Group 3: Developer Preferences - The company is optimistic about Cheung Kong Holdings and Sino Land due to their earnings being highly sensitive to property price growth [1] - For rental stocks, the company prefers Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties because of their high dividend yields and resilience in mainland luxury retail [1] Group 4: Underperforming Stocks - Link REIT is identified as an underperforming stock, contrary to market consensus, primarily due to the widening valuation gap with peers (dividend yield reaching 7%) and the short-term challenges posed by e-commerce being already reflected [1]