成交量大涨45%，大涨：这不是回暖，或是暴跌前最后出逃信号

Core Viewpoint - The surge in second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen, with a year-on-year increase of 45.5%, is viewed as a warning signal rather than a sign of market recovery, indicating a potential last escape before a market downturn [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In January 2026, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions remained above 14,000 units for three consecutive months, while Shanghai reached a five-year high with 22,834 units sold in a single month [3] - Shenzhen recorded 6,802 second-hand housing transactions, a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, breaking the traditional seasonal slowdown before the Spring Festival [3] - The new tax policy effective from January 1, 2026, reduced the tax rate on properties held for less than two years from 5% to 3%, saving buyers 40,000 yuan on a 2 million yuan property [3] Group 2: Price Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "price for volume" approach, with properties in Shenzhen selling at prices close to 2017 levels, while buyer interest has increased due to attractive rental yields [3] - In Shanghai, properties priced below 3 million yuan accounted for 60% of transactions, with faster sales of lower-priced homes in areas like Baoshan [3] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.85% month-on-month in January, indicating a slight narrowing of declines in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [6] Group 3: Seller Behavior and Market Sentiment - The number of listings in Shanghai has decreased for nine consecutive months, from 120,000 in April 2025 to 89,000 in January 2026, as some owners choose to withdraw listings or convert to rentals [6] - Owners are adjusting their pricing strategies based on market conditions, with some forming "price protection alliances" to maintain price levels [7] - The rental market's stable returns are influencing sellers' decisions, with some opting to hold onto properties rather than sell at lower prices [9] Group 4: Regional Disparities - There is a clear divergence in market performance, with core urban areas in Shanghai seeing price increases while suburban areas continue to experience price declines [4] - In cities like Xiamen and Foshan, transaction volumes have increased, while third and fourth-tier cities remain sluggish [12] - The decision-making process for buyers is becoming more rational, focusing on factors like transportation, school quality, and rental yields rather than just price fluctuations [12]