Ge Long Hui·2026-02-12 02:52Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that NetEase's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to rise only 3% year-on-year to 27.5 billion yuan, with online gaming revenue increasing by 4% to 21.3 billion yuan, which is 6% lower than the bank's expectations due to slower revenue recognition [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth - Total game revenue is estimated to grow by 10% year-on-year, indicating a healthy growth level [1] - Deferred revenue is projected to increase by 34% year-on-year to 20.5 billion yuan, reaching a new high [1] Group 2: Profitability - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to decline by 27% to 7.1 billion yuan, which is 25% lower than the bank's expectations, attributed to delayed revenue recognition and losses from equity investments marked to market [1] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company declared a dividend of $1.16 per ADS, with a payout ratio of 84%, exceeding the typical payout ratio of 30%, aimed at compensating for limited share buybacks during 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $168 for NetEase's U.S. stock and maintains an "Overweight" rating [1]