市场暂缓财政忧虑，日本超长期国债继续反弹

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese ultra-long-term government bonds continue to strengthen post-election, driven by cautious statements from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida regarding the food consumption tax reduction plan, alleviating investor concerns about fiscal policy and leading to a further decline in yields [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The key market reaction stems from Kishida's latest statements, where he acknowledged market concerns about the two-year food consumption tax reduction plan but did not make strong commitments to lowering the tax, easing the bond market's vigilance regarding fiscal sustainability [3][5]. - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 10 basis points, while the 30-year yield decreased by 9.5 basis points, returning to levels close to early January, indicating a continuation of the post-election rebound [1][4]. Group 2: Policy Signals - The bond market interprets Kishida's election victory as potentially leading to a clearer policy path, reducing the likelihood of extreme fiscal policy scenarios [5]. - Kishida emphasized that the Ministry of Finance would not fill spending gaps by issuing new debt but would explore subsidies, special tax systems, and non-tax revenues for sustainable funding sources [5][6]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - AXA Investment Managers' senior fixed-income strategist Ryutaro Kimura noted that Kishida's lack of a strong commitment to lowering the food consumption tax provides a strong incentive for bond investors to restore their long positions in ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds [6][7]. - The downward trend in ultra-long-term interest rates is expected to continue for some time, as market participants are more willing to replenish long positions that had been reduced due to volatility [7]. Group 4: Ongoing Risks - Despite improved market sentiment, investors remain cautious about the potential for renewed volatility, particularly regarding how funding gaps will be addressed if the government lowers the sales tax without increasing debt [8].