节前震荡不改乐观预期，资金借道ETF埋伏“跨年行情”

Group 1 - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to influence market sentiment, with a consensus among institutions favoring a "hold stocks during the festival" strategy, reflecting a balanced defensive approach [1][3] - Historical data indicates that the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising exceeds 60% in the first five trading days before the Spring Festival, increasing to 70% in the following five days [2] - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with stable growth policies and a generally loose liquidity situation expected to bolster market performance [2] Group 2 - The public fund market is witnessing significant activity, with 166 new funds launched in early 2023, raising a total of 154.87 billion yuan, surpassing the previous year's figures [3] - The ETF market is seeing a notable increase in investment, with a net increase of 552.48 million shares in the first seven trading days of February, indicating strong interest in index-based products [3][4] - The chemical sector, particularly petrochemicals, is attracting attention, with a net inflow of 76 million shares into the petrochemical ETF, reflecting a positive outlook for the industry [4][5] Group 3 - The technology sector, especially robotics, is identified as a key growth area, with significant capital inflows observed, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment [5][6] - The film and tourism sectors are also gaining traction, with ETFs in these areas seeing substantial growth, driven by seasonal effects and AI-related investments [6] - High-dividend strategies are becoming increasingly popular among investors, with the Free Cash Flow ETF experiencing a notable increase in shares, highlighting a preference for defensive and balanced investment approaches [6][7] Group 4 - The market is currently experiencing a rebalancing of investment styles, with a shift towards dividend-paying assets, particularly in the Hong Kong market, where certain ETFs are showing significant yield advantages [7]