Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-12 03:28Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is experiencing a sustainable growth momentum due to unprecedented debt resolution actions, which are expected to improve market expectations and drive investment recovery in infrastructure and real estate sectors [1] Fiscal Perspective - The current debt resolution measures, including debt swaps and the expansion of special bonds, have systematically alleviated liquidity constraints for local governments, improving fiscal space for infrastructure investments [1] - Special bonds issued by local governments have been increasing annually since 2017, with projections for 2024 and 2025 to exceed 7 trillion yuan, and the total issuance in 2025 expected to surpass 10 trillion yuan for the first time in history [1][4] Infrastructure Investment - The issuance of special bonds is expected to lead to a significant increase in construction activity in transportation, municipal, and water conservancy sectors, with a projected surge in physical work volume in the first half of 2025 [4][6] - Despite a decline in infrastructure investment growth, the sector still holds a significant share of fixed asset investment, indicating its critical role in the overall economy [4] Policy Transition - The policy environment is shifting from "debt replacement" to "investment stimulation," which is likely to further enhance demand for construction materials [5] Demand Dynamics - The demand structure for construction materials is changing, with traditional materials benefiting from infrastructure support and renovation materials gaining from the demand for upgrading existing properties [6] - The dual drivers of infrastructure and real estate are expected to provide a solid foundation for the construction materials sector during this debt resolution cycle [6] Profitability and Market Outlook - The profitability of the cement industry is recovering, with expectations of improved margins due to supply-side adjustments and a favorable demand outlook from real estate policies [8] - The construction materials sector is characterized by high cash flow and potential for stable dividends, with forecasts indicating overall profit recovery by 2026 [8] Investment Opportunities - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the performance of the construction materials index, providing investors with a tool to efficiently allocate resources in the sector [8][11] - The sector is viewed as a core cyclical investment opportunity, especially in the context of a market shift towards undervalued, high-dividend stocks [11]