美联储降息预期延后至7月 低利率下国内非银存款占比达10.6% 各行业迎结构性机会

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant changes in asset allocation logic and industry dynamics due to the ongoing low interest rate environment and fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - In January, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding market expectations, which led traders to push back the anticipated rate cut to July [1] - The low interest rate environment is accelerating the financialization of residents' asset allocation, with a shift from low-risk assets like cash and deposits to equity assets in the U.S. [2] Group 2 - The banking sector is seeing a decline in the average interest rate for new loans, which has dropped to 3.15% as of December 2025, with expectations of stabilization at low levels [2] - The express delivery sector shows strong demand resilience, with industry leader Zhongtong Express enhancing shareholder returns through low-interest convertible bonds [2] - The construction and decoration industry is benefiting from improved bond issuance data, with increased financing for infrastructure projects supported by special bonds and state-owned enterprise orders remaining stable [3] Group 3 - The precious metals sector, particularly gold, is viewed positively in the medium to long term due to macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening U.S. dollar [3] - The copper market is supported by a tight supply of copper concentrate and gradually recovering domestic demand [3] - The aluminum industry is characterized by a strong demand against weak supply, with clear expectations for price increases [3]