黄金与利率“脱钩”之谜：顽固通胀颠覆市场逻辑？

Group 1 - The core observation is that the historical negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has broken down, indicating increasing investor anxiety about economic prospects [1][2] - Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022, gold prices have surged over 150%, reaching nearly $5,600 per ounce, contrary to traditional expectations [1][2] - Investors are now advised to allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold due to rising geopolitical tensions and high U.S. debt levels [1] Group 2 - The breakdown of the relationship between gold and interest rates suggests that investors are preparing for potential market turmoil and are increasingly concerned about the returns of traditional assets [2] - The persistent high inflation since early 2021 has altered the dynamics, making gold more attractive as a hedge against inflation, despite a recent decline in inflation rates to around 2.7% [3][4] - Geopolitical factors, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have driven up gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets and central banks increase gold purchases to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [5] Group 3 - The ongoing macroeconomic policy risks are expected to maintain steady demand for gold as a hedge against these uncertainties, with concerns about fiscal sustainability persisting into 2026 [5] - The future trajectory of gold prices remains uncertain, hinging on whether investors perceive high inflation and geopolitical tensions as temporary or as a new normal [6]