大摩：特斯拉100GW光伏计划或推能源业务估值提升至多500亿美元

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Tesla's plan to build 100GW of vertically integrated solar manufacturing capacity could increase its energy business valuation by up to $50 billion, although this plan requires substantial capital investment [1] - Elon Musk stated during a recent earnings call that Tesla aims to increase solar capacity to 100GW in the coming years, emphasizing that the solar opportunity is underestimated and that the best way to enhance grid capabilities is through ground solar and battery systems, as well as space solar technology [1] - Currently, the largest solar manufacturer in the U.S., First Solar, projected that domestic capacity will reach 14GW by 2026 and 17.7GW by 2027, indicating that Tesla's 100GW target significantly exceeds this scale [1] Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley estimates that if Tesla achieves a fully vertically integrated solar supply chain, capital expenditures will need to reach between $30 billion to $70 billion; if focusing solely on solar cell manufacturing, the investment could be reduced to $15 billion to $20 billion, with Tesla yet to clarify funding sources [1] - Currently, Morgan Stanley values Tesla's energy business at approximately $140 billion, which corresponds to $40 per share, accounting for 10% of its $415 price target; if the solar business is successfully implemented, the value of Tesla's energy business could rise to $190 billion [1] Operational Developments - Tesla is evaluating locations in New York, Arizona, and Idaho for solar manufacturing capacity and has initiated recruitment for related positions [2] - Seth Winger, Senior Manager of Solar Product Engineering at Tesla, described the project as bold and ambitious, indicating a need for equally bold engineers and scientists to assist in scaling up operations [2]