高盛戳破“保险式”囤货时代：各国抢的，早就不止黄金了

Core Viewpoint - Central banks' gold purchases have driven up gold prices as governments seek to hedge geopolitical and financial risks, and similar "insurance" strategies are emerging in other commodity markets [3][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent supply shocks have led to a shift in commodity markets from a single global balance to a more regionally segmented structure, increasing volatility risks [3][10] - Policymakers are focusing on securing access to critical materials through tariffs, export controls, support for domestic production, and establishing government strategic reserves [11] - These measures are reshaping the commodity market landscape, making prices more sensitive to shocks [12] Group 2: Commodity Examples - Copper is highlighted as an early example where, despite a projected global supply surplus by 2025, U.S. stockpiling has removed inventory from international markets, causing copper prices to surge [12] - The demand for "insurance" in various commodities, including industrial metals like copper, is spreading from the public sector to private investors seeking diversification in an uncertain global policy environment [13] Group 3: Price and Supply Implications - Increased inflows into metals are supporting prices and amplifying market volatility [4][14] - While rising prices typically stimulate supply adjustments, policies aimed at enhancing supply security may lead to overproduction, potentially lowering prices and concentrating supply, which could heighten future supply disruption risks [14] - Gold remains structurally different, with nearly all mined gold still above ground, resulting in a stable annual supply that reacts slowly to price changes, allowing demand driven by risk concerns to sustain higher gold prices over a longer period [15]