SEMI：2025年全球硅晶圆出货规模恢复增长，但营收同比小幅下降

Core Insights - The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) reports a projected 5.8% year-on-year increase in silicon wafer shipments to 12.973 billion square inches (equivalent to 114.7 million 12-inch wafers) by 2025, while sales revenue is expected to decline by 1.2% to $11.4 billion [1][4] - The increase in shipments marks a reversal from the continuous decline observed since 2023, driven by strong demand for epitaxial wafers used in advanced logic chips and polished wafers for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) [1] - The decline in sales revenue is attributed to sluggish growth in traditional semiconductor applications [1] Industry Trends - The wafer market is expected to show a divergence between different technology nodes from 2025 to 2026, with strong demand for 300mm wafers in AI-driven logic and HBM applications, supported by the ongoing adoption of processes below 3nm [4] - The transition to advanced technologies is increasing the requirements for wafer quality and consistency, emphasizing the need for advanced material solutions [4] - Investment in data centers and generative AI continues to support demand in the advanced process segment, where performance and reliability are critical [4] Market Outlook - The traditional semiconductor segment is showing signs of stabilization, with wafer and chip inventory levels in mature process applications (such as automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics) normalizing after a prolonged inventory adjustment [4] - Although supply-demand conditions are gradually improving, the pace of recovery remains moderate, and demand recovery is still susceptible to macroeconomic factors and end-market dynamics [4] - The overall market outlook presents a dual trajectory: strong and advancing demand in advanced processes, while the mature technology segment exhibits cautious and gradual recovery [4]