美联储施密德：通胀仍高 利率需保持“限制性水平”

Core Viewpoint - The Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at a "restrictive" level due to ongoing high inflation concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Esther George expresses that further rate cuts could prolong high inflation, indicating that the current economic growth shows momentum and inflation remains elevated [1][3]. - The current federal funds rate target range is between 3.5% and 3.75%, which is close to the neutral level estimated by several officials, meaning it neither pressures nor stimulates the economy [3]. Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - Recent government data shows that U.S. non-farm payrolls increased significantly in January, marking the largest gain in over a year, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3% [3]. - Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester, notes that the labor market appears to be finding a "healthy balance," opposing further rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Fed Independence - Esther George reiterates that the composition of the Fed's Treasury holdings should align with the overall market, advocating for a market-neutral position to ensure the Fed's independence [4]. - She warns that maintaining a large, long-duration balance sheet, particularly with mortgage-backed securities, risks blurring the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, threatening the Fed's independence [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - George acknowledges strong economic growth heading into 2026, while also recognizing that innovations like AI may eventually boost productivity without raising inflation, but asserts that this has not yet occurred [3]. - Fed Governor Stephen Moore calls for continued rate cuts, citing declining housing inflation and potential supply-side factors that could stimulate the economy in 2026 [4].