Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's recent expansion of visa-free entry policies for 48 countries and optimization of transit visa policies will significantly boost inbound tourism and related consumption [1][2] - Since the second half of 2023, China has implemented a unilateral visa-free entry policy for 48 countries, allowing stays of up to 30 days, and has established visa exemptions with 28 countries, enhancing the convenience of entry for tourists and business travelers [1][2] - The report indicates that there is over 30% growth potential for inbound tourist flows in China, as the country has historically played a role as a source rather than a destination for tourists [2] Group 2 - Domestic airlines are expected to see a significant increase in international flight capacity, with monthly turnover growth exceeding 20% compared to 2019, driven by the ongoing effects of the visa-free policies [2][3] - The report forecasts that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for international passenger flow for Chinese airlines could reach up to 15% over the next three years, as foreign airlines struggle to restore capacity [2] - Major Chinese airlines, including China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Air China, are recommended for investment due to their significant international route capacity and expected benefits from the growing inbound tourism market [3]
国联民生证券:中国航司份额提升主动承接入境客流 建议布局产能出海排头兵