光伏见顶是“大谎言”？白银暴涨154%撕开IEA预测的“底裤”

Core Viewpoint - The solar industry may have reached its peak, contrary to some analysts' beliefs, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant decline in global photovoltaic (PV) installations by 2026, despite exceeding the 630 GW annual target in 2022 with 654 GW of new capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Solar Industry Performance - The solar industry is expected to face a downturn in new installations, with analysts suggesting that future growth may not surpass the levels seen in 2025 [1]. - The IEA's estimates indicate that achieving net-zero emissions will require substantial annual PV installations from 2030 to 2050, yet the current trajectory suggests a decline [1]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged by 154% over the past year, driven by both fundamental factors and speculative behavior, with 60% of silver consumption coming from industrial users, particularly the solar sector [3][6]. - Solar manufacturers consumed approximately 196 million ounces of silver last year, accounting for 17% of global silver consumption, which is equivalent to the total usage in the jewelry industry [3][6]. Group 3: Silver Consumption Trends - The transition to TOPCon technology in solar panels requires more silver, but manufacturers are increasingly reducing silver usage, achieving an annual reduction rate of about 15% [3][4]. - If the solar industry maintains this historical rate of silver savings, the demand for silver could drastically decline, potentially dropping to a quarter of last year's levels by 2035, even with a projected increase in installation volumes [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Opportunities - The potential oversupply of silver due to declining demand from the solar industry raises questions about the sustainability of current silver prices, especially as 80% of mined silver comes from profitable operations below $30 per ounce [5]. - Despite the broad applications of silver, other sectors like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence are unlikely to compensate for the loss of demand from the solar industry, which could lead to a significant supply surplus [5][6]. - There is skepticism regarding the predictions of the solar industry's peak, as historical trends suggest that the IEA has often underestimated the sector's potential for growth and innovation [7].