第一财经研究院《2025年人民币汇率年报》发布！

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Renminbi (RMB) demonstrated strong resilience, with the effective exchange rate index showing a "decline followed by an increase" trend, supported by structural factors such as improved economic expectations and robust trade surplus [1][2][16]. Group 1: RMB Effective Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB effective exchange rate index decreased from 99.4 at the beginning of 2025 to a low of 93.2, before recovering to 97.4 by year-end [2]. - The CFETS RMB index also fell from 102.1 to 95.3, then rebounded to 98 by the end of the year [2]. Group 2: RMB to Major Currencies - In 2025, the RMB appreciated against major currencies such as the USD (4.4%), JPY (4.7%), NZD (2.1%), and KRW (2.5%), while depreciating against the EUR (7.3%) and CHF (8.5%) [3][5]. - The depreciation of the EUR and CHF was notable, attributed to their strong performance amid geopolitical risks [3]. Group 3: RMB to USD Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB to USD exchange rate exhibited a "catch-up" trend, with a stable performance in the first four months of 2025, followed by a clear upward trend starting in May [7][11]. - The average RMB to USD middle rate increased from 7.19 to 7.06, reflecting a 2% rise, while the spot rate rose from 7.20 to 7.04, a 2.35% increase [7]. Group 4: Structural Factors Behind RMB Appreciation - Two main structural factors contributed to the RMB's appreciation: the implementation of macroeconomic policies improving economic expectations and capital market risk appetite, and a strong trade surplus amid global trade tensions [16][21]. - In 2025, China's trade surplus reached approximately $1.2 trillion, accounting for 5.9% of GDP, supported by diversification in export markets [22][23]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment in China is expected to support continued moderate appreciation of the RMB, contingent on maintaining appropriate fiscal and monetary policy coordination [27][29]. - Despite achieving a 5% GDP growth target for 2025, signs of marginal economic slowdown in Q4 may pose risks to the RMB's strength moving into 2026 [27].