Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-12 07:24Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI demand will "never be satisfied" for a certain period, leading to ongoing investment in storage technology and a sustained shortage of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for several years [1] - Future constraints on HBM capacity will not stem from the front-end wafer production but rather from back-end testing and other processes [1] - It is predicted that storage capacity will increase, with manufacturers able to receive equipment in as little as 4 months, while others may take up to 9 months, leading to increased front-end wafer production capacity after 9 months [1] Group 2 - The increased capacity will not be immediately available for AI data centers requiring HBM but will instead be allocated to consumer products [3] - This allocation will result in the release of inventory held by intermediaries, benefiting the smartphone and computer markets, potentially reversing trends in the mid-range smartphone market in the third quarter of this year [3]