十大首席解码马年主线：A股站稳4000点、金价上涨趋势不变

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economy is expected to experience moderate policy support, with a focus on both supply and demand to achieve reasonable growth, while the A-share market is anticipated to stabilize above 4000 points, transitioning from a historical resistance level to a significant support level. The international gold price is also expected to maintain an upward trend [1]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and achieving high-quality development. The People's Bank of China plans to implement moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments to support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The core drivers of economic growth in 2026 are expected to be investment driven by policy, recovery in domestic demand, and resilient exports, forming a multi-faceted growth structure [4]. - The actual GDP growth rate for mainland China in 2026 is projected to reach or exceed the IMF's forecast of 4.2%, with a market consensus around a target close to 5% due to manufacturing momentum and resilient infrastructure investment [4]. A-Share Market - The A-share market is currently in a phase of structural differentiation, with a significant increase in trading volume. It is expected to effectively stabilize at the 4000-point level, which has shifted from a resistance level to a support level [7]. - Key drivers for the A-share market's stability at 4000 points include policy and liquidity support, improvement in corporate earnings, continuous capital inflow, and restoration of market confidence [7][8]. Investment Themes - The investment theme for 2026 is expected to emphasize "endogenous growth + self-controllable" logic, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy, capital, and demand resonance, particularly in technology, energy transition, advanced manufacturing, and high-end services [9]. Gold Price Outlook - The international gold price is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases. The gold price may experience short-term fluctuations but is expected to trend upwards in the medium to long term, potentially reaching 5500-6000 USD/ounce [10][11].