人民币兑美元汇率盘中升至近三年新高

Core Viewpoint - The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates have recently surpassed the 6.9 mark against the USD, reaching their highest levels since May 4, 2023, indicating a strengthening trend in the RMB [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Supporting RMB Strength - Key factors supporting the RMB's resilience include net inflows of cross-border capital, stable expectations regarding exchange rate fluctuations, and active foreign exchange market trading [1]. - The Chinese economy is showing signs of stability and improvement, with positive progress in economic restructuring and a strong growth momentum, which provides conditions for the RMB to maintain stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [1]. - The RMB's appreciation is also supported by external factors such as high expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a decline in the USD index from its peak [2]. Group 2: Trade Surplus and Foreign Investment - In 2025, China's goods trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, reaching $1,188.9 billion, a 19.8% increase from 2024, which has contributed to the strengthening of the RMB [2]. - The scale of foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased by over 20% year-on-year, reflecting global capital's confidence in RMB assets [2]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government is implementing policies to promote domestic demand and enhance the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to support the RMB's appreciation [3]. - Future projections suggest that the RMB/USD exchange rate may stabilize around 7.0, with potential peaks near 6.8, driven by strong economic performance in early 2026 [4]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a gradual appreciation of the RMB, predicting it will reach 6.85 by the end of 2026 and further strengthen to 6.54 by the end of 2027 [4]. Group 4: Exchange Rate Management - A balanced approach to RMB appreciation is deemed necessary, as rapid appreciation could be detrimental to China, while no appreciation may raise concerns among trade partners [5].