华友钴业股价震荡：镍价政策利好与基本面疲软博弈

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Huayou Cobalt (603799) has shown volatility despite positive news regarding nickel prices due to supply cuts in Indonesia, reflecting a tug-of-war between policy-driven optimism and weak fundamentals [1][3]. Group 1: Stock and Market Performance - As of February 12, 2026, Huayou Cobalt's stock closed at 75.15 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.45%, but experienced a 12.39% fluctuation over the past five trading days [1]. - The Indonesian government significantly reduced the annual quota for the world's largest nickel mine, from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, which positively impacted nickel prices, with LME nickel rising over 2% and Shanghai nickel increasing by 4.02% to 139,360 yuan/ton on February 11 [1]. - Despite the policy boost, the nickel market is characterized by high inventory and weak demand, with domestic pure nickel social inventory rising to 73,225 tons and LME nickel inventory exceeding 285,000 tons as of February 6 [1]. Group 2: Company Fundamentals - The company's 2025 earnings forecast indicates a net profit of 5.85 billion to 6.45 billion yuan, supported by the ramp-up of the Indonesian nickel hydrometallurgy project [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a TTM PE ratio of 26.64, which is at a near-year high, leading some investors to consider profit-taking [2]. - On February 11, the stock price surged by 5.45% to 73.35 yuan, with a net inflow of 718 million yuan, but the following day saw a reduced fluctuation of 3.38%, indicating significant capital divergence [2]. Group 3: Future Development - The supply reduction policy in Indonesia may lead to a long-term upward adjustment in nickel prices, providing cost advantages for integrated companies like Huayou Cobalt [3]. - Short-term attention is required on the implementation pace of the policy and the recovery of downstream demand post-Spring Festival; if inventory depletion does not meet expectations, the rebound potential for nickel prices may be limited [3]. - Overall, the stock price volatility of Huayou Cobalt reflects the conflict between policy-driven optimism and weak fundamentals, influenced by technical pressures, capital sentiment, and macroeconomic factors [3].