专访德银全球CIO：AI不是泡沫 中国资产吸引力上升

Core Viewpoint - The global market remains significantly uncertain as it approaches 2026, with increasing debates surrounding the investment risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI). Asset allocation is facing new challenges, and the principle of "discipline beats drama" will be crucial throughout the year [1][2]. Group 1: AI Investment Insights - AI is viewed as a structural transformation rather than a bubble, with significant ongoing investment opportunities across the entire AI value chain, not just in chips. Related sectors such as data centers, utilities, and infrastructure are expected to benefit [1][4]. - The construction of data centers requires substantial cooling systems and power supply, indicating that utility sectors will also see stability and dividend characteristics, which can help balance investment portfolios [3][4]. Group 2: Emerging Markets and China - Emerging markets are anticipated to have a positive year in 2026, supported by a weaker dollar, a majority of central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, and the absence of a global recession. Regions like Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe have shown strong momentum [5]. - China remains attractive for investment, particularly outside the real estate sector, with increasing interest from European and American investors. This could enhance China's importance in global investment portfolios [5]. Group 3: Dollar and Inflation Risks - Despite discussions about reassessing dollar asset exposure, there has not been a significant operational shift. The U.S. market, especially AI-related companies, continues to be attractive, with equity returns exceeding 20% [6]. - Inflation risk is highlighted as a potential underappreciated threat, as higher-than-expected inflation could limit central banks' ability to cut rates, impacting asset performance. Factors such as geopolitical events, tariffs, and rising wages due to low unemployment should not be overlooked [8]. Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - Geopolitical events are acknowledged as potential sources of market volatility, but the focus should remain on whether these events drive up energy prices, which in turn affects inflation. Oil prices, energy, and inflation are critical points for assessing geopolitical risks [9]. Group 5: European Economic Outlook - The overall outlook for European economic growth in 2026 is relatively optimistic, driven by fiscal spending, particularly in Germany, which is expected to support the broader European economy. However, structural reforms are still needed to enhance growth potential [10].