AI恐慌引发软件股“大逃杀”，华尔街反应过度了？

Core Viewpoint - The software sector on Wall Street has faced significant turmoil due to fears that artificial intelligence (AI) will disrupt the industry, culminating in a recent sell-off described as a "collapse" [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Major software companies have seen substantial stock declines, with ServiceNow (NOW) down over 22%, Thomson Reuters (TRI) down over 26%, Intuit (INTU) down over 26%, Snowflake (SNOW) down 18%, and Salesforce (CRM) down over 20% since January 29 [1] - The market logic suggests that AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI may either develop their own software to compete with existing products or enable businesses to easily create custom internal software, both scenarios posing risks to traditional software firms [1] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts argue that the panic on Wall Street may be an overreaction, suggesting that AI may not replace all existing software companies but could enhance the services of many legacy firms [1][2] - Jason Ader from William Blair emphasizes the need to differentiate between software companies facing greater risks and those that are more secure, indicating that the current sell-off may not reflect the true value of individual companies [2] Group 3: Challenges for AI Companies - There are significant barriers preventing AI companies from overtaking existing software firms, including the reluctance of enterprises to allocate IT resources for developing custom software unless it offers a critical long-term advantage [3] - The initial development costs of custom software are only part of the equation, and despite the availability of open-source software, the third-party software market has continued to thrive [3] - Ader notes that using AI tools to create new applications may not be practical for companies that already have effective solutions in place [3] Group 4: Integration of AI - AI functionalities are likely to be integrated into existing software, enhancing their capabilities and customer value rather than completely replacing them [4] - Data governance issues also pose challenges, as companies may be hesitant to share proprietary data with AI models, preferring to work with established partners [5] - While some software companies may struggle to keep pace with the evolving AI landscape, those that adapt are likely to thrive [5]