森林包装2025年业绩预减超六成，子公司担保及新项目亏损引关注

Company Performance - The company announced a projected decline in net profit for 2025, estimating a range of 53 million to 73 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 62.25% to 72.60% [2] - The decline is primarily attributed to initial losses from the "60,000 tons digital inkjet paper industry upgrade project," falling product prices, and intensified industry competition [2][4] Subsidiary Development - The company reported a guarantee balance for its controlling subsidiary of 804 million yuan, which accounts for 31.09% of the latest audited net assets [3] - The guaranteed parties have asset-liability ratios exceeding 70%, but the company assesses the risk as controllable, requiring attention to future debt repayment capabilities [3] Project Progress - The "60,000 tons digital inkjet paper industry upgrade project" commenced production in April 2025, incurring a loss of 61.06 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with expectations of continued negative impact on overall performance for the year [4] - The project is currently in a debugging phase, with losses attributed to discrepancies between technical processes and market demand, making future turnaround progress a key focus [4] Industry Conditions - The paper industry is facing supply-demand imbalances and intensified price competition, with excess capacity in corrugated paper expected in 2025 [5] - The company's gross margin has decreased to 5.7% in the first three quarters of 2024, and the net cash flow from operating activities has turned negative at -30.52 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 261.2% [5] Latest Valuation - As of February 8, 2026, the company's relative valuation range is between 8.58 and 9.49 yuan, with an accuracy rating of C, indicating average competitiveness within the industry and weak profitability and growth potential [6] - The high price-to-earnings ratio (TTM approximately 41-43 times) requires performance realization to support valuation [6]