春节交易大红包，除了AI，还有消费、人民币……

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market is showing positive signals ahead of the 2026 Spring Festival, with a focus on consumer sentiment and corporate pricing power [1] - Three key trends are emerging: structural recovery in consumption, changes in risk appetite due to a stronger RMB, and the redistribution of profits due to rising upstream costs [1] Consumption: "More Rational Upgrades" - JPMorgan defines the main theme for Spring Festival trading as "upside options in consumption," noting that household leverage has decreased to slightly below 60% of GDP, indicating continued capacity for consumption but with a more pragmatic mindset [2] - A Bank of America survey shows that 45% of respondents reported increased spending in February, up from 38% in December, with 49% expecting to increase spending in the next six months [2] Consumption Stratification - The increase in spending intentions during the Spring Festival is primarily driven by high-income groups, with 76% of those earning over 500,000 RMB expecting to spend more, compared to only 44% of low-income groups [4] - High-end products such as premium smartphones, liquor, and travel are expected to see increased demand, with specific examples like the price of Moutai rising from approximately 1,495 RMB to 1,710 RMB per bottle [4] Travel and Services: Short-Cycle Certainty - Travel intentions are rising, with domestic short trips increasing to 36% from 25% year-on-year, and plans for trips to Hong Kong and Macau rising to 21% [7] - However, caution is advised regarding the film box office, which may see a slight decline due to high base effects from 2025 [9] RMB: Risk Appetite "Tailwind" - A stronger RMB typically correlates with a decrease in risk premium for Chinese assets, benefiting growth and cyclical sectors [10] - JPMorgan anticipates a "moderate appreciation" of the RMB in 2026, leading to differentiated impacts on companies based on their ability to pass on costs [10] Valuation and Profitability - The stability of exchange rate expectations may enhance foreign investment interest in RMB assets, particularly benefiting high-beta sectors [12] - Companies in the aviation sector are expected to benefit significantly due to their cost structure, while those in manufacturing with high export ratios may face pressure [12] Cost Pressures: Reevaluation of Pricing Power - Rising costs in metals, chips, and materials are becoming more systemic, prompting a reevaluation of corporate profitability based on pricing power and product upgrades [13] - The combination of rational consumer upgrades and rising supply costs may lead to a positive outcome for CPI and nominal growth [13] Comprehensive Assessment - Post-Spring Festival, the market will need to address three key questions: the sustainability of consumption recovery, the persistence of improved risk appetite due to a stronger RMB, and the extent of profit differentiation under rising costs [14] - Investment strategies should focus on "consumption + services" while emphasizing precise selection around pricing power, reflecting a narrative of "moderate recovery + structural differentiation" in 2026 [14]