特斯拉豪赌100吉瓦光伏产能，摩根士丹利测算能源业务估值有望飙升至1900亿美元

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that Tesla's plan to build 100 GW of vertically integrated solar manufacturing capacity could increase the equity value of its energy business by $20 billion to $50 billion, although achieving this will require significant capital investment [1][2] Group 1: Tesla's Solar Manufacturing Plan - Tesla aims to integrate the entire supply chain from raw materials to finished solar panels, with a capital expenditure estimated between $30 billion to $70 billion for full vertical integration, or $15 billion to $20 billion if focusing solely on solar cell manufacturing [1] - Elon Musk highlighted the underestimated potential of solar opportunities, stating that ground solar and battery systems, along with space solar technology, are the best ways to enhance grid capabilities [1] Group 2: Financial Projections and Market Position - Morgan Stanley currently values Tesla's energy business at approximately $140 billion, which represents 10% of its $415 price target, with potential growth to $190 billion if the solar business progresses successfully [2] - A fully scaled vertical solar business could generate around $25 billion in annual revenue, nearly double Tesla's projected revenue from energy production and storage by 2025, and could also yield billions in tax credits [2] Group 3: Market Demand and Strategic Focus - The 100 GW capacity will not be entirely directed at the ground market, as Morgan Stanley estimates that the annual demand for utility-scale solar in the U.S. is only 30 to 40 GW; most of Tesla's capacity will be allocated to space data centers, which Musk views as a solution to alleviate AI-related pressure on the grid [2] - Tesla is actively evaluating factory locations in multiple states, including New York, Arizona, and Idaho, and has begun recruitment for related positions [2]