Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-12 09:53Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the domestic wafer foundry leader, SMIC, citing a positive long-term development outlook based on the company's Q4 2025 performance and Q1 2026 guidance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved sales revenue of $2.489 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.5%, exceeding guidance [1] - The gross margin decreased to 19.2%, down 3.4 percentage points year-over-year and 2.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, aligning with guidance [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $173 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 60.7% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 10% [1] Group 2: Capacity and Capital Expenditure - In Q4 2025, the company shipped 2.51 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, a year-over-year increase of 26.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.6%, with a capacity utilization rate of 95.7% [2] - The average wafer price for 8-inch wafers increased to $914, with a year-over-year decrease of 11% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1% [2] - Capital expenditure for Q4 2025 was $2.408 billion, a year-over-year increase of 45% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.6%, with expectations for 2026 capital expenditure to remain roughly the same as 2025 at approximately $8.1 billion [2] Group 3: Revenue by Application and Region - In Q4 2025, revenue from applications showed significant growth, with industrial and automotive sectors increasing by 81.4% and 43.4% year-over-year, while computer and tablet revenue decreased by 24.7% [3] - Regionally, revenue from China accounted for 87.6% of total revenue, with the U.S. contributing 10.3% and the Eurasian region 2.1% [3] Group 4: Strategic Acquisitions and Investments - The company plans to acquire 49% of the minority stake in SMIC North, which reported revenues of 9 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan for the first eight months of 2025 [4] - The company will increase its stake in SMIC South from 38.515% to 41.561% through a cash investment of $7.778 billion from new partners, with projected net profits for SMIC South of 3.666 billion yuan and 3.9315 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively [4]