Core Viewpoint - The investment market is currently focused on the choice between "holding stocks during the holiday" or "holding cash during the holiday," with historical data suggesting a higher success rate for holding stocks post-holiday [1][12][13]. Market Trends - The stock index has begun a rebound, driven by AI catalysts, indicating a prelude to the Spring Festival market [2][11]. - The A-share market has shown a significant "pre-holiday effect," with trading volume decreasing to approximately 2.2 trillion yuan, and financing funds experiencing a net outflow for three consecutive weeks [2][18]. - The recent market volatility is attributed to a breakdown of short-term bullish trends and external pressures from commodity price fluctuations [3][4][5]. Investment Sentiment - There is a prevailing cautious sentiment among institutional investors, leading to reduced positions ahead of the long holiday to mitigate risks associated with overseas uncertainties [2][6]. - The recent adjustments in the market have created opportunities for recovery, with many institutions remaining optimistic about post-holiday performance due to unchanged core domestic fundamentals and policies [14][17]. Historical Performance - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the average gain for the A-share market in the 10 trading days following the Spring Festival is 3.3%, compared to an average loss of -1.3% in the 10 days prior [13]. - The success rate for the A-share market in the first five and ten trading days after the Spring Festival is 78%, significantly higher than pre-holiday performance [13]. Sector Analysis - The recent market adjustments have led to a rotation among sectors, with notable performances in light communication, computing power chains, commercial aerospace, and cultural media [11]. - The AI sector remains a focal point, with significant developments such as the release of Seedance 2.0, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of AI-generated content production [24][30][32]. Liquidity and Fund Flows - Historical trends show that market liquidity typically contracts before the holiday due to increased cash withdrawal demands, but tends to rebound afterward [18]. - Recent data indicates that the outflow of broad-based ETFs has largely stabilized, with signs of net inflows emerging [7][8]. Future Outlook - The upcoming macroeconomic data releases from both China and the U.S. are anticipated to provide insights into the improvement of fundamentals, which could support market recovery [14]. - The potential for a "spring rally" remains, as historical patterns suggest that early-year market movements do not preclude continued upward trends in February and March [22][23].
胜率78%，持股过节？
3 6 Ke·2026-02-12 10:39