HKEX(HK:00388) Jin Rong Jie·2026-02-12 10:47Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) will see a decline in revenue and profit in Q4 2025 compared to the historical high in Q3 2025, with a projected year-on-year profit drop of 2% due to rising cost stickiness and increased tax rates [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - HKEX's average daily trading volume for Q4 2025 is estimated at HKD 230 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20% [1] - The average daily trading volume for futures is expected to decline by 16% year-on-year, while options trading volume is projected to rise by 8% [1] - Revenue for Q4 2025 is anticipated to grow by 4% year-on-year, primarily driven by approximately 12% growth in core business, although weak net investment income will partially offset this growth [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects that January's market activity will be relatively active, providing support for HKEX's performance throughout 2026 [1] - The second half of 2026 is anticipated to bring favorable conditions for HKEX, supported by sustained market activity and signs of easing PPI pressure [1]