评论 | 稳住了2025年业绩，恒隆下一张王牌在哪里？

Core Insights - Henglong Real Estate reported a total revenue of HKD 99.50 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year decline, primarily due to a significant drop in property sales. However, rental income from mainland shopping malls increased slightly by 1% to HKD 48.71 billion, indicating resilience in this segment [2][19][18] Financial Performance - Despite the overall revenue decline, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 3% to HKD 32.02 billion, showcasing a complex performance where rental income remains the mainstay, contributing over 94% to total revenue [2][18] - The overall rental income saw a minor decrease of 1%, yet rental income from mainland malls experienced a 1% increase, highlighting a contrasting performance within different segments [2][19] Rental Market Dynamics - The rental income from key projects such as Shanghai Henglong Plaza and Hongqiao Henglong Plaza grew by 1% and 2% respectively, together accounting for nearly 60% of the total rental income from mainland malls [19][3] - The overall occupancy rate for mainland malls increased by 2 percentage points to 96%, with tenant sales rising by 4%, indicating a recovery in the malls' operational performance [21][5] Strategic Adjustments - The company is adapting to changing consumer trends, shifting focus from luxury goods to more popular dining and sports brands, which are now seen as growth drivers. This has led to a strategic adjustment in tenant mix, reducing supermarket space to accommodate more dining options [22][6] - Henglong is also enhancing customer experience by learning from successful experiential retail models, aiming to transform malls into more engaging spaces for consumers [22][6] Office Space Challenges - In contrast to the retail sector, the office rental income in mainland China fell by 8% to HKD 10.05 billion, with an overall occupancy rate dropping by 4 percentage points to 79%. The Shanghai Henglong Plaza office space faced significant pressure, with an 11% decline in rental income [24][8] - Management remains pragmatic, prioritizing tenant retention and negotiating lower rents to maintain occupancy during this challenging period, which is expected to last 18 to 24 months [24][8] Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, management expresses confidence in a potential market recovery within the next two years. The introduction of the "V.3" strategy marks a shift in focus towards existing projects rather than expansion into new cities, aiming for incremental growth through targeted investments [26][10] - Upcoming projects, such as the expansion of the Hangzhou Henglong Plaza, are anticipated to drive future growth, with a pre-leasing rate of 77% as of mid-2025 [30][14] Market Segmentation - Performance varies significantly across different cities, with strong results in Shanghai, Wuxi, Dalian, and Kunming, while cities like Tianjin, Wuhan, and Shenyang are experiencing declines in rental income exceeding 30% [28][10] - This disparity reflects local market conditions and competitive pressures, necessitating a tailored approach to each city's strategy [28][10]