华泰证券近日指出，受中东局势升温影响，短期来看导致香港流动性宽松预期受阻，为房地产市场复苏 带来一定不确定性；但长期来看，中东变局有望强化香港对于全球避险和多元化配置资金的吸引力，尤 其中东资本对于大中华区域的配置意愿本就较为积极，可能为香港核心商业地产和高端住宅带来增量需 求。 香港地产股普遍走低，截至发稿，恒隆地产(00101)跌3.62%，报9.05港元；九龙仓置业(01997)跌 3.27%，报24.28港元；长实集团(01113)跌3.88%，报46.08港元；信和置业(00083)跌2.03%，报11.61港 元。 消息面上，美联储主席鲍威尔讲话释放了"鹰派"信号。他表示，美国通胀顽固、前景不确定性上升，若 通胀无进展，将不会降息。最新公布的利率点阵图显示，美联储决策层预计今年将降息一次，并在2027 年再降息一次，但具体时点仍不明确。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港地产股普遍走低，截至发稿，恒隆地产(00101)跌3.62%，报9.05港元；九龙仓 置业(01997)跌3.27%，报24.28港元；长实集团(01113)跌3.88%，报46.08港元；信和置业(00083)跌 2.03%，报11.61港元。 消息面上，美联储主席鲍威尔讲话释放了"鹰派"信号。他表示，美国通胀顽固、前景不确定性上升，若 通胀无进展，将不会降息。最新公布的利率点阵图显示，美联储决策层预计今年将降息一次，并在2027 年再降息一次，但具体时点仍不明确。 华泰证券近日指出，受中东局势升温影响，短期来看导致香港流动性宽松预期受阻，为房地产市场复苏 带来一定不确定性；但长期来看，中东变局有望强化香港对于全球避险和多元化配置资金的吸引力，尤 其中东资本对于大中华区域的配置意愿本就较为积极，可能为香港核心商业地产和高端住宅带来增量需 求。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [4][30]. Core Insights - The investment side remains weak, with a significant decline in new starts and completions, indicating a challenging environment for the real estate sector [4][20]. - Sales metrics show a contraction, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase for the market [21][30]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decrease in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, although there are signs of gradual improvement expected due to policy support [33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2026, real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with new starts down 23.1% and completions down 27.9% [4][20]. - The report forecasts a continued weak investment environment, with predictions of a 7.7% decline in new starts, a 13.1% decline in completions, and a 9.1% decline in overall investment for 2026 [4][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January-February 2026 was 0.9 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, while sales revenue fell by 20.2% to 818.6 billion yuan [21][30]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pricing pressure in the market [29][30]. - The report anticipates that sales will remain below demand levels in the short term, with a forecast of a 7.6% decline in sales area, a 9.4% decline in sales revenue, and a 2.0% decline in prices for 2026 [32][30]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in January-February 2026 were 1.3 trillion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans decreasing by 13.9% [33]. - The report highlights a tightening in funding conditions, particularly in personal mortgage loans, which saw a 41.9% year-on-year decline [33]. - Despite the current funding pressures, the report suggests that ongoing policy support may lead to gradual improvements in funding availability [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the real estate industry [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model, establishing a multi-subject supply and multi-channel guarantee housing system, and achieving a higher level of housing security [8][6]. - The industry is expected to transition from rapid development to high-quality development, focusing on housing supply, public housing fund systems, foundational systems, supply and inventory management, housing leasing, and lifecycle management [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Housing Security System - The plan proposes optimizing the supply, use, and management of affordable housing, enhancing support for low-income urban families, and addressing the housing needs of new citizens and youth [9][10]. - It emphasizes a full-process management approach for affordable housing, including application, waiting, allocation, use, and exit mechanisms [11][12]. 2. New Real Estate Model - The plan calls for improving foundational systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales, and supports the implementation of project company systems and financing lead bank systems [24][25]. - It suggests managing land supply and layout in coordination with housing inventory and population changes, granting local governments more autonomy in real estate market regulation [30][31]. - The plan also aims to activate existing land and projects, which could reduce the overall inventory cycle in the housing market [34][35]. 3. High-Quality Housing - The plan advocates for increasing the supply of improved housing and constructing safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, while also enhancing property service quality [45][46]. - It highlights the need for a regulated and professionalized housing leasing market, with a focus on lifecycle safety management for housing [48][49]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies key companies in the industry, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and others, suggesting they may benefit from valuation recovery due to low financing costs and high market share in core areas [66][67]. - It also notes that the REITs market could expand with quality underlying assets such as affordable rental housing and shopping centers, which are expected to provide stable cash flows [68][69].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Hang Lung Properties may see a significant increase in tenant sales in mainland China during the first two months of 2026, potentially accelerating from an 18% year-on-year growth in Q4 of last year to over 20% in the first two months of this year, driven by the luxury fashion sector and a substantial increase in gold and jewelry sales [1] Group 1 - The luxury fashion industry is expected to show mid to high single-digit growth, contributing to the overall increase in tenant sales [1] - Sales in the gold and jewelry category are projected to grow between 50% to 100%, further boosting overall performance [1] - The forecast for the annual increase in tenant sales has been revised upward to between 10% and 15%, compared to the previous estimate of 5% to 10% [1] Group 2 - The target price for Hang Lung Properties has been set at HKD 12, and it is reiterated as a preferred stock with a rating of "Overweight" [1]

该行近期获本地专家、奢侈品牌及其他业主的反馈后，估计恒隆地产2026年首两个月在中国内地租户销 售额可能进一步提升，有机会由去年第四季同比增长18%加速至今年首两个月同比增长20%以上，受惠 于奢侈时尚行业呈现中至高单位数增长，以及黄金和珠宝品类或增长50%至100%所带动。 智通财经APP获悉，小摩发布研报称，将恒隆地产(00101) 全年租户销售额增幅预测上调至介乎10%至 15%(原先料同比增5%至10%)，其目标价12港元，其评级为"增持"。该行称恒隆地产股价自近期高位回 调约10%，留意到南向投资者正减持股份，但留意离岸投资者的兴趣增加。该行建议低位吸纳，现估值 相当于预测每股资产净值(NAV)折让67%及5.6%收益率，十分吸引。该行重申恒隆地产为首选股之一， 潜在上升空间料达30%。 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年2月28日 | 狀態: | 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | 公司名稱: | 恒隆地產有限公司 | | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年3月5日 | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | | | 備註： | | | | | 恒隆地產有限公司並無法定股本，及其股本並無股份面值。 | | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00101 | 說明 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][28]. Core Insights - The report indicates that after a deep adjustment in the real estate sector, the industry fundamentals are approaching a bottom, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][28]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new home transactions, with a week-on-week increase of 334.6% in 34 key cities, indicating a recovery trend [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies and commercial properties, suggesting that they will recover profitability sooner and with more elasticity due to improved industry dynamics [2][28]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][11]. - The transaction volume for first-tier cities was 950,000 square meters, up 315.9% week-on-week, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a staggering increase of 626.2% [3][11]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11]. - However, the cumulative transaction volume for February showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 key cities launched 120,000 square meters of new supply, with total sales of 380,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 3.1 times [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remained unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [28][29]. - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy was introduced to optimize the local real estate market, including reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing the maximum public housing fund loan amount for first-time buyers [28][29]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued $355 million in senior unsecured bonds with a maturity of 3 years and a coupon rate of 11.8% [36]. - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by only 0.6% compared to a 1.08% increase in the CSI 300 Index [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (513630) has shown a slight increase in its closing price and has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets since the beginning of the year [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF was established on November 23, 2023, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of February 26, 2024, the fund's latest share count is 9.58 billion, and the total asset size is 16.508 billion [1]. - The fund's performance benchmark is the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, the fund has seen a 7.22% decrease in share count and a 0.82% decrease in total assets compared to December 31, 2023 [1]. - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount reached 7.782 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 389 million [1]. - In the year-to-date period, the cumulative trading amount is 14.394 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 423 million [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund managers are He Zhihao and Hu Di, both of whom have managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 71.48% during their tenure [2]. - The latest report indicates that the fund's top holdings include Jiangxi Copper Co., Far East Horizon, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, and others, with specific weightings in the portfolio [2]. Group 4: Top Holdings - Jiangxi Copper Co. holds 4.51% of the portfolio, valued at 751 million [3]. - Far East Horizon accounts for 3.37%, valued at 561 million [3]. - China Shenhua Energy represents 3.12%, valued at 519 million [3]. - CNOOC has a holding of 3.11%, valued at 518 million [3]. - Other significant holdings include Henderson Land Development, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and Hang Seng Bank, each with varying percentages and valuations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from JPMorgan indicates surprise over the increase in stamp duty rates for properties valued over 100 million, but the bank is not overly concerned as it will only affect 0.3% of transactions [1] Group 1: Stamp Duty Impact - The increase in stamp duty (2.25%) is expected to have a minimal impact on ultra-wealthy buyers, as property prices may rise enough to offset this cost within a month or two [1] - In 2025, there were only 169 transactions valued over 100 million, highlighting the limited scope of the tax increase [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The policy is viewed as a redistribution fiscal measure aimed at taxing the ultra-wealthy to subsidize low-income groups, rather than suppressing the real estate market [1] - The announcement may trigger a stronger "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among buyers of properties priced between 50 million and 99.9 million, who may worry about future tax increases [1] Group 3: Developer Recommendations - The most favored developers currently include Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Henderson Land Development (00012), and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - Recommended rental stocks include Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972) [1]