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美银:预计2026年香港楼市复苏加强 看好长实(01113)、太古(01972)及恒隆
智通财经网· 2026-01-15 03:17
Group 1 - The core view of the report is that the Hong Kong residential market is expected to bottom out by mid-2025, with a recovery anticipated to strengthen in 2026, extending to the CBD office and high-end retail sectors [1] - The report forecasts a 5% to 10% increase in Hong Kong residential prices in 2026, followed by a further 5% increase in 2027 [1] - The valuation of the sector is believed to have normalized, leading to a more moderate price increase outlook [1] Group 2 - The company has raised target prices for several stocks by an average of 8% to reflect a stronger outlook for residential prices and a 50 basis point reduction in capitalization rates to 4.5% to 5.25% [1] - The report highlights a positive outlook for "buy" ratings on Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), Swire Properties (01972), and Hang Lung Properties (00101), while reiterating a "underperform" rating for MTR Corporation (00066) due to its large capital expenditure plans [1] - The report identifies potential catalysts for Hang Lung Properties, Henderson Land (00012), and Wharf Real Estate Investment (01997) in the first quarter [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that developers have already factored in a 5% to 10% increase in residential prices when comparing current residential prices and stock prices to 2021 [1] - Hang Lung Properties is expected to announce a new Singapore property fund and increase share buybacks by at least $200 million [1] - There is a divergence of opinions among investors regarding whether Henderson Land will cut dividends for the fiscal year 2025, which may lead to stock price volatility after earnings announcements [1] Group 4 - The report indicates that the rebound in earnings will be key for further revaluation of the sector, with Henderson Land expected to be the only Hong Kong developer to record a significant earnings rebound for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Cheung Kong Holdings and Kerry Properties (00683) are projected to lead the earnings rebound for developers from 2025 to 2028, with an average annual rebound exceeding 10% [2] - Swire Properties and Hang Lung Properties are expected to lead earnings growth for owners during the same period [2]
美银:预计2026年香港楼市复苏加强 看好长实、太古及恒隆
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 03:16
美银发表研究报告指,随着香港住宅市场于2025年中触底,预期复苏将于2026年加强,并扩展至CBD 办公室及高端零售板块。该行预期2026年香港住宅价格上升5至10%,2027年上升5%。 美银认为,板块估值已正常化,料迎来较温和的升幅。该行平均上调多个目标价8%,以反映更强劲的 住宅价格展望及资本化率下调50个基点至4.5至5.25%。 基于未来3年实体市场复苏带动的盈利反弹潜力,该行看好"买入"评级的长江实业(01113)、太古地产 (01972)及恒隆地产(00101),并重申对港铁(00066)的"跑输大市"评级,因其庞大资本开支计划下大幅上 调股息的可能性低。该行认为恒隆地产、恒基地产(00012)及九龙仓置业(01997)于第一季度具事件催化 剂。 该行相信盈利反弹将成为板块进一步重估的关键。预期恒基地产为2026财年唯一录得显著盈利反弹的香 港发展商。整体而言,长实及嘉里建设(00683)料于2025-28财年带领发展商盈利反弹,平均每年反弹超 过10%。就业主而言,该行预期太古地产及恒隆地产于同期每年领先盈利增长。 美银表示,将当前住宅价格及股价与2021年对比,估计发展商已计入5至10%的住 ...
美银:预计2026年香港楼市复苏加强 看好长实(01113)、太古(01972)及恒隆(00101)
智通财经网· 2026-01-15 03:05
智通财经APP获悉,美银发表研究报告指,随着香港住宅市场于2025年中触底,预期复苏将于2026年加 强,并扩展至CBD办公室及高端零售板块。该行预期2026年香港住宅价格上升5至10%,2027年上升 5%。 美银认为,板块估值已正常化,料迎来较温和的升幅。该行平均上调多个目标价8%,以反映更强劲的 住宅价格展望及资本化率下调50个基点至4.5至5.25%。 基于未来3年实体市场复苏带动的盈利反弹潜力,该行看好"买入"评级的长江实业(01113)、太古地产 (01972)及恒隆地产(00101),并重申对港铁(00066)的"跑输大市"评级,因其庞大资本开支计划下大幅上 调股息的可能性低。该行认为恒隆地产、恒基地产(00012)及九龙仓置业(01997)于第一季度具事件催化 剂。 美银表示,将当前住宅价格及股价与2021年对比,估计发展商已计入5至10%的住宅价格增长,而业主 股价仍远低于其盈利跌幅。该行重点提及三只具第一季度潜在事件催化剂的股份: 1)恒隆地产预计公布新的新加坡物业基金;与此同时,预期公司将至少增加2亿美元的股份回购;2)投 资者对恒基地产2025财年股息是否下调意见分歧,这可能于业绩公布 ...
2026年浙江要开42个新项目,恒隆、嘉里、香港置地顶级对决!
3 6 Ke· 2026-01-15 02:23
2026年,浙江商业市场迎来新一轮供应潮。据统计,全年计划新开业商业项目达42个,总体量约300万平方米,同比2025年拟新增数量下滑约6%。 02. 购物中心主场竞争激烈 然而,这一年各大运营商角逐激烈。恒隆、嘉里、香港置地、龙湖等巨头抢占市场,单体规模普遍较大,共同推动浙江步入"质升"与"结构优化"的新阶 段。 | | | 2026年浙江筹开项目 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市 | 项目名称 | 商业建筑面积(万方) | 开业时间 | | 杭州 | 杭州恒隆厂场 | 10 | 2026-4 | | 杭州 | 杭州光环梦中心 | 17.2 | 2026 | | 杭州 | 杭州嘉里城 | 10 | 2026 | | 杭州 | 龙湖杭州钱湾天街 | 7 | 2026 | | 杭州 | 龙湖杭州滨康天街 | 10 | 2026第四季度 | | 杭州 | 杭州金茂览秀城 | 8.5 | 2026 | | 杭州 | 杭州临安吴越里 | 7.2 | 2026-7 | | 杭州 | 杭州世纪中心商场AURA HZ | 12 | 2026-5 | | 杭州 | 杭州未来谷 LIVE欧美 ...
300101 子公司涉串通投标 遭禁采3年
Group 1 - The company has been penalized for procurement violations in military activities, specifically for collusion in bidding, resulting in a three-year ban from participating in procurement activities in the Western Theater starting January 6, 2026 [4]. - Internal governance challenges are highlighted, with the company's chairman and other board members publicly criticizing the actual controller for hindering the company's development and potentially violating industry entry regulations [3]. - The company's financial performance has shown fluctuations, with revenues of 1.182 billion, 852 million, and 797 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, and a decline in net profit from 300 million to 40 million yuan during the same period. However, there is a recovery in 2025, with a 30.56% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters, reaching 736 million yuan [3][5]. Group 2 - The company’s products primarily consist of mixed-signal integrated circuits, with over 300 types of chips used in critical applications such as communication, display control, and industrial sectors [3]. - The company reported a net profit of 92.78 million yuan for the latest period, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.79%, driven by rapid growth in its Beidou navigation and machine perception businesses [5]. - Company directors plan to increase their holdings in the company within the next six months, with a total investment between 5.1 million and 10.2 million yuan, without a price cap on the shares [5].
港股通红利低波ETF华宝(159220)跌0.50%,成交额2057.34万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 11:49
Core Viewpoint - The Huabao S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159220) has shown a slight decline in its closing price and has experienced a modest increase in its scale since the end of 2025, indicating stable performance in a volatile market [1]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of January 7, 2025, the fund closed down by 0.50% with a trading volume of 20.57 million yuan [1]. - The fund's management fee is 0.50% annually, and the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1]. - The fund's latest share count is 512 million, with a total scale of 311 million yuan, reflecting a 0.00% increase in shares and a 0.98% increase in scale since December 31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount for the fund reached 716 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 35.78 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund managers are Yang Yang and Hu Yijiang, both of whom have managed the fund since its inception on April 29, 2025, achieving a return of 20.30% during their tenure [2]. Group 4: Top Holdings - The fund's top holdings include Jiangxi Copper Co. (3.33%), Hang Lung Properties (3.17%), China Shenhua Energy (3.10%), and others, with their respective market values and share counts detailed [3].
大摩:料今年香港住宅、中环写字楼及零售销售齐升 较看好住宅市场
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 09:16
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its industry outlook for Hong Kong's real estate to "attractive," expecting positive year-on-year growth in three segments: residential property prices, Central office rents, and retail sales for the first time since 2018 [1][2]. Residential Sector - The firm is most optimistic about the residential market, predicting that property prices, which have fallen by 30% since 2018, will bottom out by 2025 and rise by 10% in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [1]. - The removal of stamp duties for foreign and mainland buyers in February 2024 is anticipated to boost property purchases from mainland clients [1]. - The influx of mainland immigrants, which has doubled to 140,000 annually post-pandemic compared to 70,000 from 2012 to 2019, is contributing to positive population growth [1]. - A strong stock market performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 28% in 2025, has also improved market sentiment [1]. Office Sector - Despite high vacancy rates, the market is expected to recover, with Central office rents projected to increase by 3% this year due to rising demand for quality office properties from asset management firms, hedge funds, and wealth management institutions [2]. - Recent large transactions, pre-leasing activities, and increased trading volumes in the IPO market are seen as positive indicators for the office sector [2]. Retail Sector - Retail sales in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 3% year-on-year this year, driven primarily by an increase in visitor numbers [2]. - However, there are concerns regarding the ongoing rise in online retail sales and competition from lower-priced products and services in Shenzhen, which pose challenges to the retail market [2]. - The expansion of duty-free sales in mainland China is also viewed as a potential pressure point for Hong Kong's retail sector [2].
大摩:料今年香港住宅、中環寫字樓及零售銷售齊升 較看好住宅市場
智通财经网· 2026-01-06 09:08
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its industry outlook for Hong Kong's real estate sector to "attractive," expecting positive year-on-year growth in three segments: residential property prices, Central office rents, and retail sales for the first time since 2018 [1][2]. Residential Market - The residential property market is viewed as the most promising, with prices having dropped 30% since 2018 and expected to bottom out by 2025, followed by a projected 10% increase in 2026 and further growth in 2027 [1]. - The removal of stamp duties for foreign and mainland buyers in February 2024 is anticipated to boost property purchases from mainland clients [1]. - The influx of mainland immigrants, reaching 140,000 annually post-pandemic, has doubled compared to the 70,000 per year from 2012 to 2019, contributing to positive population growth [1]. - The strong performance of the stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising 28% in 2025, has also improved market sentiment [1]. Office Market - Despite high vacancy rates, the office market is expected to recover, with Central office rents projected to increase by 3% this year due to rising demand for quality office properties from asset management firms, hedge funds, and wealth management institutions [2]. - Recent large transactions, pre-leasing activities, and increased trading volumes in the IPO market are seen as positive indicators for the office sector [2]. Retail Market - Retail sales in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, driven primarily by an increase in visitor numbers [2]. - However, there are concerns regarding the continuous rise in online retail sales and competition from lower-priced products and services in Shenzhen, as well as potential pressure from the expansion of duty-free sales in mainland China [2].
恒隆地产(00101) - 截至2025年12月31日止股份发行人的证券变动月报表
2026-01-06 08:49
FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00101 | 說明 | | 不適用 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份(不包括庫存股份)數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 5,056,646,442 | | 0 | | 5,056,646,442 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | | 5,056,646,442 | | 0 | | 5,056,646,442 | 第 2 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年12月31日 | 狀態: | 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致:香港交 ...
奢侈品抛弃高端商场,高端商场拥抱小登
远川研究所· 2026-01-04 13:16
Core Insights - The luxury retail sector in China is facing significant challenges, with high-end malls and luxury brands experiencing a decline in performance and store closures due to changing consumer behavior and economic conditions [4][18][24]. Group 1: Market Trends - High-end malls like One ITC and IFC have seen a wave of luxury brand withdrawals, including major names like LV, Celine, and Tiffany, leading to increased vacancy rates [4][10]. - The luxury market in mainland China is projected to experience a continuous decline, with sales expected to drop by 18%-20% in 2024, reverting to 2020 levels [19][21]. - The relationship between luxury brands and high-end malls, which was once mutually beneficial, is deteriorating as both sectors struggle to adapt to new market realities [12][17]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Hang Lung Properties reported an 18.7% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of the year, with net profits decreasing for two consecutive years [6][10]. - Other major players in the high-end real estate sector, such as Swire Properties and New World Development, are also facing financial difficulties, with Swire reporting a loss of HKD 1.202 billion [8][10]. - Rental income from luxury brands is becoming increasingly critical for high-end malls, with Hang Lung's rental income share rising from 58.8% to 70.3% [24]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - In response to declining performance, high-end malls are exploring new strategies, such as introducing new consumer brands and shifting towards a more inclusive customer base [26][29]. - Companies like China Resources are successfully expanding their shopping centers by focusing on experiential retail and attracting a broader range of consumers through innovative marketing strategies [32][33]. - The shift from traditional luxury retail to a more experience-driven model is evident, with malls aiming to transform from mere shopping venues to lifestyle destinations [32][34].