首选股方面，收租股(商场/写字楼类)偏好恒隆地产(00101)及太古地产(01972)。发展商偏好信和置业 (00083)。同时亦看好置地公司，但建议等待更佳的入市时机。 摩根大通发布研报称，香港地产股业绩期将于1月底展开。虽然该行预期大部分公司的盈利仍将持续下 行，香港住宅市场改善对2025财年报表的影响有限，但该行认为即将公布的业绩或将成为大多数公司的 低位，下一财政年度盈利很大机会反弹。 ...

首选股方面，收租股(商场/写字楼类)偏好恒隆地产(00101)及太古地产(01972)。发展商偏好信和置业 (00083) 。同时亦看好置地公司，但建议等待更佳的入市时机。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，香港地产股业绩期将于1月底展开。虽然该行预期大部分公 司的盈利仍将持续下行，香港住宅市场改善对2025财年报表的影响有限，但该行认为即将公布的业绩或 将成为大多数公司的低位，下一财政年度盈利很大机会反弹。 ...

摩根大通发表研报指，考虑到多只香港地产股已达到或接近历史高点，相信市场已消化了香港楼市在未 来两年的稳固复苏。在此关口，摩通认为收租股潜在上行空间更大，因其商业地产业务的改善尚未被完 全反映在股价中，其大多数股价仍比高峰低30%以上。 该行首选恒隆地产和太古地产，因该两只股票在内地的零售业务持续改。若九龙仓置业管理层在今年3 月的业绩发布会上，对租户销售前景表态转为更积极，也有可能成为一匹黑马。在发展商中，该行则偏 好信和置业和恒基地产，但总体上建议等待更好的入场时机。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [3][4][21]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2% in total real estate development investment for 2025, and a significant drop of 35.8% in December alone [4][21]. - The sales side shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% for 2025, and a 15.6% drop in December [22][32]. - The funding side indicates a continued decline in funding sources, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in total funding for real estate development in 2025, and a sharp 26.7% drop in December [37]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - Total real estate development investment for 2025 reached 828.8 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with December's investment declining by 35.8% [4][21]. - New construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 19.4% decline [20][21]. - The report adjusts 2026 forecasts, predicting a 7.7% decline in new construction and a 9.1% drop in investment [21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December's sales area declining by 15.6% [22][32]. - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year decrease, with December's sales revenue down 23.6% [24][32]. - The average selling price of commercial housing for 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 4.3% year-on-year [31][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 9.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year, with December's funding sources down 26.7% [37]. - Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with a significant drop of 45% in December [37]. - The report anticipates that funding sources will gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [37].

中金分别下调集团2025年和2026年股东应占基本纯利预测3%和4%至29.7亿和30.4亿港元，对应同比跌 4%和增2%，主要考虑物业销售业务预测调整及利息资本化率假设变化；引入2027年盈利预测30.4亿港 元，持平于2026年。中金同时提示，若以调整回资本化利息的物业租赁基本纯利口径作为考量，则公司 经营业绩及派息能力有望自2026年起以单位数百分比年化同比速度持续回升。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，预计随着恒隆地产(00101)内地商场零售额增速年内持续修复，其 物业租赁业务收入跌幅有望较中期收窄(中期同比下降3%)，叠加平均融资成本边际优化，同时考虑物业 销售业务拖累有限，预计全年股东应占基本纯利同比跌幅收窄至4%(中期为跌9%)，预计全年累计每股 派息52港仙(中期已经派发12港仙)、持平于2024年。中金维持集团"跑赢行业"评级，上调目标价10%至 10.4港元，对应2026年17倍 市盈率、5%股息 收益率和10%上行空间，主要反映市场风险偏好变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that the retail sales growth of Hang Lung Properties (00101) in mainland China will continue to recover throughout the year, leading to a narrowing of the decline in property leasing income, which fell by 3% year-on-year in the interim [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected year-on-year decline in basic net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year is projected to narrow to 4%, compared to a 9% decline in the interim [1] - CICC has adjusted the target price upward by 10% to HKD 10.4, reflecting a 17 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 and a 5% dividend yield, indicating a 10% upside potential [1] - The forecasts for basic net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 3% and 4% to HKD 2.97 billion and HKD 3.04 billion, respectively, reflecting a 4% year-on-year decline and a 2% increase [1] Group 2: Dividend and Capitalization - The company is expected to declare a total annual dividend of HKD 0.52 per share, maintaining the same level as in 2024, with HKD 0.12 already distributed in the interim [1] - If considering the adjusted capitalized interest for property leasing basic net profit, the company's operating performance and dividend capacity are expected to continue to recover at a single-digit percentage annual rate starting from 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that the retail sales growth of Hang Lung Properties' mainland shopping malls will continue to recover throughout the year, leading to a narrowing of the decline in property leasing income, which is expected to decrease by 3% year-on-year in the mid-term [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected year-on-year decline in the basic net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to narrow to 4% for the full year, compared to a 9% decline in the mid-term [1] - The total expected dividend per share for the year is 52 Hong Kong cents, with an interim dividend of 12 Hong Kong cents already distributed, maintaining the same level for 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - CICC maintains a "outperform the industry" rating for the group and raises the target price by 10% to HKD 10.4, reflecting a 17 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, a 5% dividend yield, and a 10% upside potential [1] - The adjustments in the target price primarily reflect changes in market risk appetite [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from JPMorgan indicates that several brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, contributing to an 11% rise in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The market appears to have priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - There is greater potential upside for rental stocks, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below peak levels [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - JPMorgan's top picks include Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could emerge as a dark horse if management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, the preference is for Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but the overall recommendation is to wait for better entry points [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that multiple brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, which has contributed to an 11% rise in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has already priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - The firm suggests that rental stocks have greater potential for upside, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below their peaks [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's top picks for rental stocks are Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could become a dark horse if its management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley prefers Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but generally advises waiting for a better entry point [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that multiple brokerages have raised their forecasts for Hong Kong's property price growth to between 5% and 10%, which has led to an 11% increase in Hong Kong real estate stocks this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 6% [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has already priced in a solid recovery in Hong Kong's property market over the next two years, as many companies' stock prices have reached or are close to historical highs [1] - The firm suggests that rental stocks have greater potential for upside, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most still trading over 30% below their peaks [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's top picks include Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972), due to their ongoing improvements in retail operations in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development (01997) could become a dark horse if its management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley prefers Sino Land (00083) and Henderson Land (00012), but generally advises waiting for a better entry point [1]