行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2026 年 03 月 01 日 春节后"沪七条"新政卡点推出，释 放稳楼市强信号并示范全国 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/2/21-2026/2/27） 本期投资提示： 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (513630) has shown a slight increase in its closing price and has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets since the beginning of the year [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF was established on November 23, 2023, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of February 26, 2024, the fund's latest share count is 9.58 billion, and the total asset size is 16.508 billion [1]. - The fund's performance benchmark is the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, the fund has seen a 7.22% decrease in share count and a 0.82% decrease in total assets compared to December 31, 2023 [1]. - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount reached 7.782 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 389 million [1]. - In the year-to-date period, the cumulative trading amount is 14.394 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 423 million [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund managers are He Zhihao and Hu Di, both of whom have managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 71.48% during their tenure [2]. - The latest report indicates that the fund's top holdings include Jiangxi Copper Co., Far East Horizon, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, and others, with specific weightings in the portfolio [2]. Group 4: Top Holdings - Jiangxi Copper Co. holds 4.51% of the portfolio, valued at 751 million [3]. - Far East Horizon accounts for 3.37%, valued at 561 million [3]. - China Shenhua Energy represents 3.12%, valued at 519 million [3]. - CNOOC has a holding of 3.11%, valued at 518 million [3]. - Other significant holdings include Henderson Land Development, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and Hang Seng Bank, each with varying percentages and valuations [3].

智通财经APP获悉，摩通发布研报称，在2026/27年度《财政预算案》中，对价值超过1亿元的房产印花 税率上调感到惊讶。虽然标题看起来是负面，但该行表示，并不太担心，因为这只会影响0.3%的交 易，根据2025年价值超过1亿元交易仅有169笔；从超级富豪购房者角度来看，新增成本(2.25%)可能微 不足道，主要是房价上涨一两个月即可复盖这部分成本；这项政策的目标并非打压房地产市场，而更似 是一项再分配的财政政策，透过向超级富豪征税以补贴低收入群体。 该信息由智通财经网提供 该行指，事实上，这甚至可能引发更强烈的"害怕错过"(FOMO)情绪，尤其是那些购买价值在5,000万至 9,900万元之间的房产的买家，可能会担心未来需要支付更高的印花税。该行表示，在消息公布后，该 板块回调1%至2%，又认为，这更像是年初至今强劲表现后盈利套现的借口。 该行指，目前最看好的开发商包括新鸿基地产(00016) 、恒基地产(00012)和信和置业(00083)；收租股包 括恒隆地产(00101)和太古地产(01972)。 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，港府新一份《财政预算案》宣布将价值超过1亿元的住宅物业印花税率上调至 6.5%。该行估算此类物业在2025年占总成交量0.3%，但占总成交额8%，预期措施将对九龙仓集团 （00004）构成负面影响； 其他有此类物业风险敞口的公司包括恒隆地产（00101）（如蓝塘道洋房）、长实集团（01113）（如波 老道21号项目）、恒基地产（00012）（如西半山天御）及新鸿基地产（00016） 商业地皮方面，连续第二年没有商业用地推出发售，将透过改善供需情况来支持写字楼及零售物业市 场。而各项人才计划已吸引27万人来港，其中逾10万人透过高端人才通行证计划来港，为香港创造额外 的住屋需求。 。 商业地皮方面，连续第二年没有商业用地推出发售，将透过改善供需情况来支持写字楼及零售物业市 场。而各项人才计划已吸引27万人来港，其中逾10万人透过高端人才通行证计划来港，为香港创造额外 的住屋需求。 另外，政府正寻求将房托基金（REITs）纳入互联互通机制，并引入修订条例草案以促进REITs私有化 或重组，以及可能豁免寻求上市的REITs转让非住宅物业的印花税； 此举对领展房产基金（00823）属正面因素。 ...

该行指，事实上，这甚至可能引发更强烈的"害怕错过"(FOMO)情绪，尤其是那些购买价值在5000万至 9900万港元之间的房产的买家，可能会担心未来需要支付更高的印花税。在消息公布后，该板块回调 1%至2%，该行认为这更象是年初至今强劲表现后盈利套现的借口。该行指，目前最看好的开发商包括 新地、恒地和信置；收租股包括恒隆地产和太古地产。 摩根大通发表研报指，在港府2026/27年度《财政预算案》中，对价值超过1亿港元的房产印花税率上调 感到惊讶。虽然标题看起来是负面，但该行表示并不太担心，因为这只会影响0.3%的交易，根据2025 年价值超过1亿港元交易仅有169笔；从超级富豪购房者角度来看，新增成本(2.25%)可能微不足道，主 要是房价上涨一两个月即可覆盖这部分成本；这项政策的目标并非打压房地产市场，而更似是一项再分 配的财政政策，透过向超级富豪征税以补贴低收入群体。 ...

2025年下半年起，主要奢侈品集团在亚太区(剔除日本)的销售增速显著改善，LVMH、历峰等集团增速 在连续7个季度后首次转正。中国区市场的改善已成为全球奢侈品集团业绩修复的关键变量，各大品牌 普遍看好中国市场的长期潜力。国内高端商场零售额增速亦在下半年显著提升。2025年恒隆地产内地商 场租户零售额同比增长4%，日均客流量创历史新高;太古地产旗下多数商场在下半年显著提速，其中上 海兴业太古汇凭借标志性项目"路易号"拉动，零售额大增49.6%。 财富效应驱动高端消费需求回升，高频指标印证修复 富人资产增速、海南离岛免税数据、澳门博彩业数据、高档酒店数据等可做高端消费高频跟踪;二奢数 据反映大众人群需求，与高端消费同向变动;奢侈品公司季度业绩表现、高端商圈(恒隆、太古等)零售额 增速可做为高端消费情况后验指标。其中富人资产增速(t-1期)对奢侈品业绩具有领先预测价值，随着股 市及投资收益改善，高净值人群消费意愿已实质性回暖，可在瑞士钟表对华出口转正、澳门博彩毛收入 逐季加速复苏以及高端酒店RevPAR的增长中得到印证。 风险提示 宏观经济与消费信心波动风险、政策与监管环境变化风险、行业竞争与替代分流风险。 华福证 ...

港股通红利低波ETF基金（159118）现任基金经理为严筱娴。严筱娴自2025年11月17日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益3.06%。 最新定期报告显示，港股通红利低波ETF基金（159118）重仓股包括远东宏信、中国神华、中国石油股 份、中国海洋石油、江西铜业股份、恒隆地产、恒安国际、信和置业、电讯盈科、中国石油化工股份， 持仓占比如下。 股票代码股票名称持仓占比持仓股数（股）持仓市值（元）03360远东宏信1.07%70.30万498.70万01088 中国神华1.06%13.40万493.23万00857中国石油股份1.05%59.40万486.83万00883中国海洋石油1.05%24.40 万487.94万00358江西铜业股份1.05%17.60万487.23万00101恒隆地产1.04%58.30万483.12万01044恒安国 际0.91%16.65万423.93万00083信和置业0.91%46.40万425.49万00008电讯盈科0.85%72.50万393.49万 00386中国石油化工股份0.84%94.60万392.83万 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月24日，华夏标普港股通 ...

Core Insights - The retail commercial property market in 2025 is undergoing a profound structural adjustment due to macroeconomic headwinds and changing consumer habits, leading to varied survival scenarios among companies with different backgrounds and strategies [3][30] Group 1: Hong Kong Property Companies - Sun Hung Kai Properties remains the "rental king," recording net rental income of HKD 18.392 billion for the fiscal year 2025, demonstrating strong resilience [4][31] - The company maintains a high mall occupancy rate of 95% in Hong Kong by introducing popular mainland brands and optimizing public spaces [4][31] - Swire Properties reported a 20% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, with retail sales in mainland China up 70% compared to 2019, but faced significant market differentiation [7][34] - Hang Lung Properties experienced mixed results, with overall income stable but significant city-level disparities, prompting a shift to more refined operational strategies [9][36] - Link REIT adopts a pragmatic approach to stabilize its operations amid structural changes in consumer behavior, enhancing its asset portfolio in Hong Kong and mainland China [11][38] - Kerry Properties shows financial discipline with a 22% drop in net profit but maintains a controlled debt ratio of 40% [13][40] - Shui On Land's resilience heavily relies on its Shanghai projects, which contribute 78% of rental income, highlighting the challenges in its national expansion [16][43] Group 2: Mainland Property Companies - Longfor Properties is focusing on revitalizing older projects, reducing interest-bearing debt by HKD 60 billion over three and a half years, and achieving a historical low financing cost of 3.58% [20][45] - China Resources' commercial segment reported a revenue of CNY 3.267 billion, a 14.6% increase, with a gross margin of 66.1% [21][48] - The average opening rate of new projects in the first half of 2025 exceeded 91%, with significant retail sales growth from third-party managed projects [22][49] Group 3: Regional Leaders - Hisense Plaza in Qingdao has maintained its status as Shandong's top luxury venue for 28 years, achieving annual sales exceeding CNY 6 billion [26][51] - Lihua Group represents a different path in regional commerce with its "department store + supermarket" model, facing challenges in national expansion and declining performance since 2019 [28][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that new home sales during the Spring Festival period saw a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a total of 9.3 million square meters sold across 16 major cities [3][13]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, driven by recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks [3]. - The report emphasizes that the fundamental bottom of the real estate sector is approaching, with expectations for quality companies to recover profits more quickly and flexibly [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities during the week before the Spring Festival totaled 192.3 million square meters, a decrease of 1.1% week-on-week, but an increase of 56.6% compared to the average weekly sales this year [4]. - In February, new home sales in 34 cities increased by 88.5% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing a 96.8% increase [9]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities was reported at 8,870.4 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [54]. 2. Policy News - The report notes that the government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with various local policies being introduced to optimize housing supply and manage existing stock [3]. - Specific measures include the promotion of REITs in commercial real estate, with 12 applications submitted recently [3]. 3. Company Dynamics - Sales data for major real estate companies in January showed mixed results, with China Jinmao reporting a 13.6% increase in sales, while other companies like Poly Developments saw a 13.3% decrease [3]. - The report highlights the performance of the property management sector, which has shown resilience compared to the broader market [3]. 4. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.69%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 0.36% [3]. - The report suggests that the current valuation levels for quality real estate companies are at historical lows, making them attractive for investment [3].

Core Insights - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza has demonstrated resilience in the luxury retail market, achieving a 1% increase in revenue and a 4% rise in tenant sales despite challenges in 2025 [3][4] - The annual "HOME TO LUXURY" event significantly boosted tenant sales by nearly 50%, showcasing the effectiveness of strategic marketing initiatives [3][4] Group 1: Business Strategy - The mall's strategy includes introducing high-end domestic brands like Laopuyuan, which enhances its traditional jewelry offerings and attracts affluent customers [6][10] - A focus on dining and experiential retail is aimed at increasing foot traffic and customer dwell time, with new high-end restaurants and trendy light dining options being introduced [6][10] Group 2: Target Audience - The mall is actively engaging younger consumers, with initiatives like the Murakami Ohana Hatake exhibition and Jellycat Café attracting a 23% increase in visitors under 30 years old [8][9] - The introduction of pop-up stores for designer brands allows for mutual exploration between the mall's clientele and new brands, enhancing customer engagement [9] Group 3: Expansion and Innovation - The ongoing Phase III expansion will add 13% more leasable space, aiming to redefine the mall's spatial logic and functionality to create a more inviting lifestyle environment [10][12] - The new outdoor space will facilitate community experiences and events, enhancing the mall's appeal as a social destination and allowing for a wider range of activities [11][12]