汇丰研究发布研报称，随着恒隆地产购物中心业务表现改善，加上新的轻资产扩张策略，其盈利前景及 股息确定性有望增强，为股价带来支持。恒隆地产将于月30日公布2025年度业绩，汇丰预期，撇除物业 销售因素，公司2025年盈利将大致按年持平，较之前一年下跌25%明显改善。该行指出，旗下商场租户 销售额正逐步回升，尤其两个上海商场表现稳健，加上香港商场业务呈现企稳迹象，均有利推动2026年 盈利增长。 汇丰预期，恒隆地产中国内地商场的租户销售额在第四季度将维持第三季度按年增长10%的势头。从历 峰集团及Burberry等高端零售商近期业绩可见类似趋势。香港零售销售额亦于2025年11月录得连续第七 个月增长，按年上升6.5%，料支持公司香港本地零售业务回稳。改善中的租户销售表现，预计将逐步 转化为2026年的盈利增长。 恒隆地产(00101)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.85%，报9.37港元，成交额8254.87万港元。 ...

汇丰研究发布研报称，随着恒隆地产购物中心业务表现改善，加上新的轻资产扩张策略，其盈利前景及 股息确定性有望增强，为股价带来支持。恒隆地产将于月30日公布2025年度业绩，汇丰预期，撇除物业 销售因素，公司2025年盈利将大致按年持平，较之前一年下跌25%明显改善。该行指出，旗下商场租户 销售额正逐步回升，尤其两个上海商场表现稳健，加上香港商场业务呈现企稳迹象，均有利推动2026年 盈利增长。 汇丰预期，恒隆地产中国内地商场的租户销售额在第四季度将维持第三季度按年增长10%的势头。从历 峰集团及Burberry等高端零售商近期业绩可见类似趋势。香港零售销售额亦于2025年11月录得连续第七 个月增长，按年上升6.5%，料支持公司香港本地零售业务回稳。改善中的租户销售表现，预计将逐步 转化为2026年的盈利增长。 智通财经APP获悉，恒隆地产(00101)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.85%，报9.37港元，成交额8254.87万港 元。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨跌幅 √ | 最新价 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00017 | 新世界发展 | (0) | 4.35% | 9.830 | 247.39亿 | | 00016 | 新鸿基地产 | | 3.93% | 119.000 | 3448.36 Z | | 00101 | 恒隆地产 | | 3.47% | 9.540 | 482.4 Z | | 01113 | 长实集团 | | 3.14% | 45.360 | 1587.5亿 | | 00083 | 信和置业 | | 3.01% | 11.650 | 1104.94亿 | | 00014 | 第遺兴业 | | 2.75% | 21.660 | 222.45 Z | | 00683 | 嘉里建设 | | 2.70% | 23.620 | 342.8 Z | | 01997 | 九龙合置业 | | 1.98% | 26.800 | 813.71亿 | | 00087 | 太古股份公司B | | 1.12% | 12.640 | 360.11亿 | | 00823 | 领展房 ...

花旗发表研报指，投资者反馈对香港地产持正面态度，依行业划分的优先次序为房地产开发商>中环写 字楼>奢侈品零售；而非必需零售业则令人失望。投资者预期楼价在今年将进入上升周期；关注2027、 2028年的可持续性，且投资者一致认为楼价已过拐点，预计今年将有明显的5%至10%升幅。花旗表 示，投资者对中环写字楼乐观，但对零售业看法较淡；看好新鸿基地产、香港置地、恒隆地产和太古地 产。 ...

首选股方面，收租股(商场/写字楼类)偏好恒隆地产(00101)及太古地产(01972)。发展商偏好信和置业 (00083)。同时亦看好置地公司，但建议等待更佳的入市时机。 摩根大通发布研报称，香港地产股业绩期将于1月底展开。虽然该行预期大部分公司的盈利仍将持续下 行，香港住宅市场改善对2025财年报表的影响有限，但该行认为即将公布的业绩或将成为大多数公司的 低位，下一财政年度盈利很大机会反弹。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that while the earnings of most Hong Kong real estate stocks are expected to continue declining, the upcoming earnings announcements may represent a low point for many companies, with a significant chance of earnings rebound in the next fiscal year [1] Group 1: Earnings Outlook - The earnings season for Hong Kong real estate stocks is set to begin at the end of January [1] - The impact of the improvement in the Hong Kong residential market on the fiscal year 2025 financial statements is expected to be limited [1] - Most companies are anticipated to report continued earnings decline [1] Group 2: Preferred Stocks - For rental stocks (shopping malls/office buildings), the preferred choices are Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972) [1] - For developers, the preferred stock is Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - The report also expresses a positive outlook on the Land Development Company but suggests waiting for a better entry point [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has priced in the stable recovery of the Hong Kong property market over the next two years, as several Hong Kong real estate stocks have reached or are close to historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The potential upside for rental stocks is greater, as improvements in their commercial real estate businesses have not yet been fully reflected in stock prices, with most stock prices still over 30% lower than their peaks [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - The preferred stocks are Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties, due to the continuous improvement in their retail businesses in mainland China [1] - Kowloon Development could become a dark horse if management expresses a more positive outlook on tenant sales during the earnings release in March [1] - Among developers, the preference is for Sino Land and Henderson Land, but the overall recommendation is to wait for a better entry point [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [3][4][21]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2% in total real estate development investment for 2025, and a significant drop of 35.8% in December alone [4][21]. - The sales side shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% for 2025, and a 15.6% drop in December [22][32]. - The funding side indicates a continued decline in funding sources, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in total funding for real estate development in 2025, and a sharp 26.7% drop in December [37]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - Total real estate development investment for 2025 reached 828.8 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with December's investment declining by 35.8% [4][21]. - New construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 19.4% decline [20][21]. - The report adjusts 2026 forecasts, predicting a 7.7% decline in new construction and a 9.1% drop in investment [21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December's sales area declining by 15.6% [22][32]. - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year decrease, with December's sales revenue down 23.6% [24][32]. - The average selling price of commercial housing for 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 4.3% year-on-year [31][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 9.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year, with December's funding sources down 26.7% [37]. - Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with a significant drop of 45% in December [37]. - The report anticipates that funding sources will gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [37].

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that the retail sales growth of Hang Lung Properties (00101) in mainland China will continue to recover throughout the year, leading to a narrowing of the decline in property leasing income, which fell by 3% year-on-year in the interim [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected year-on-year decline in basic net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year is projected to narrow to 4%, compared to a 9% decline in the interim [1] - The total annual dividend per share is expected to be 52 Hong Kong cents, consistent with 2024, with 12 Hong Kong cents already distributed in the interim [1] Group 2: Target Price and Ratings - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for the group and raises the target price by 10% to HKD 10.4, reflecting a 17 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, a 5% dividend yield, and a 10% upside potential [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 3% and 4% to HKD 2.97 billion and HKD 3.04 billion, respectively, reflecting a 4% year-on-year decline and a 2% increase [1] - The introduction of the 2027 profit forecast is set at HKD 3.04 billion, remaining flat compared to 2026 [1] Group 4: Future Performance Outlook - If considering the adjusted capitalized interest for property leasing basic net profit, the company's operating performance and dividend capacity are expected to continue to recover at a single-digit percentage annual rate starting from 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that the retail sales growth of Hang Lung Properties (00101) in mainland China will continue to recover throughout the year, leading to a narrowing of the decline in property leasing income, which fell by 3% year-on-year in the interim [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected year-on-year decline in basic net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year is projected to narrow to 4%, compared to a 9% decline in the interim [1] - CICC has adjusted the target price upward by 10% to HKD 10.4, reflecting a 17 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 and a 5% dividend yield, indicating a 10% upside potential [1] - The forecasts for basic net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 3% and 4% to HKD 2.97 billion and HKD 3.04 billion, respectively, reflecting a 4% year-on-year decline and a 2% increase [1] Group 2: Dividend and Capitalization - The company is expected to declare a total annual dividend of HKD 0.52 per share, maintaining the same level as in 2024, with HKD 0.12 already distributed in the interim [1] - If considering the adjusted capitalized interest for property leasing basic net profit, the company's operating performance and dividend capacity are expected to continue to recover at a single-digit percentage annual rate starting from 2026 [1]