每日投行/机构观点梳理（2026-02-12）

Group 1: Federal Reserve Outlook - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that the labor market shows early signs of tightening, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will shift focus to inflation as the economy continues to outperform expectations. They still believe there is room for two rate cuts this year, but a higher-than-expected CPI on Friday could tilt the Fed towards a hawkish stance [1] - TD Securities has pushed back its forecast for the next Fed rate cut from March to June, still expecting a total of 75 basis points in cuts this year, bringing the terminal rate to 3%. They anticipate cuts in June, September, and December, attributing the expected easing to a normalization of monetary policy as inflation returns to target levels [1] - Monex's macro research head states that the strong January employment data should eliminate market bets on a March rate cut, but they still expect the Fed to resume cuts in June [2] - CITIC Securities predicts that there will be no rate cuts during Powell's term, with potential cuts of 1 to 2 times of 25 basis points expected after Warsh takes over as Fed Chair [2] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Data - Huatai Securities reports that January's non-farm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 65,000, although revisions for November and December reduced the total by 17,000. They maintain that the Fed will pause rate cuts until after the new Fed Chair is appointed, with potential cuts of 1-2 times thereafter [3] - The overall improvement in the job market is noted, but the sustainability of the January non-farm data is questioned due to concentration in a few sectors like healthcare [3] Group 3: Japanese Economic Policy - Nomura analysts highlight that Prime Minister Kishida's government may adopt more responsible fiscal policies, leading to a stronger yen against other G10 and Asian currencies. Discussions are ongoing regarding funding for temporary consumption tax relief, potentially utilizing surpluses from the foreign exchange fund special account [1]