全球市场“巨变”：“实体”回归，“科技”分化

Core Insights - The narrative of "US tech dominance" is being challenged as Goldman Sachs reveals a paradigm shift in its global strategy report, indicating that the era of "financial assets" outperforming "real assets" is reversing, with emerging markets making a strong comeback by 2025 [1][4][7] Group 1: Market Trends - The US market is projected to lag behind other major markets for the first time in 2025, with indices like the European STOXX 600, Japan's Topix, and MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) showing better performance than the S&P 500 [4][7] - Emerging markets are experiencing a significant revaluation, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising from 100 to nearly 120 relative to developed markets since the beginning of 2025, driven by both macro and micro factors [7] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Performance - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, corporate earnings in the US remain strong, with a growth rate exceeding 12% in the current quarter, surpassing market consensus by 5 percentage points [8] - The median year-on-year growth for S&P 500 companies is 9%, with 59% of companies exceeding earnings expectations, indicating a broadening source of growth beyond large tech stocks [9] Group 3: Technology Sector Dynamics - AI capital expenditure is projected to reach $659 billion, a 60% increase from 2025, but concerns about return on investment are rising, leading to a divergence in performance among the "Magnificent Seven" tech companies [10] - The software sector is facing a crisis as AI innovations threaten traditional SaaS models, resulting in a significant drop in software valuations, with a recent 15% decline reflecting a fundamental reassessment of growth prospects [11] Group 4: Shift Towards Real Assets - There is a notable shift towards physical assets, with capital expenditures in utilities and capital-intensive industries surging, as the growth of tech giants increasingly relies on infrastructure investments [12] - The valuation premium of capital-light companies over capital-intensive firms is decreasing, indicating a renewed focus on tangible assets [12] Group 5: Value Stocks Revival - The reevaluation of growth rates in certain tech sectors, combined with persistent inflation and higher real interest rates, has led to renewed interest in value stocks, which are transitioning from being seen as "value traps" to "value creators" [13] - The performance of financial assets has reversed significantly since early 2025, with gold, emerging markets, and value stocks outperforming tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [13] Group 6: Diversification Opportunities - The current market environment, characterized by strong corporate earnings and a shift in growth sources, presents new diversification opportunities for investors, necessitating a reassessment of long-standing allocation habits across regions, sectors, and styles [16]