瑞银大幅调高液冷龙头英维克目标价：明显低估，还有60%空间

Core Viewpoint - UBS has significantly raised its profit forecast for Invec (002837) and increased the target price from 100 yuan to 160 yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating, highlighting that the market undervalues Invec's capabilities in the liquid cooling sector amid the explosive growth of AI computing power [1] Group 1: Global Liquid Cooling Market - The global liquid cooling market is expected to reach $9 billion in 2026, $15 billion in 2027, and $17 billion in 2028, with long-term CAGR from 2025 to 2030 projected at 51%, potentially exceeding $31 billion by 2030 [1] - The demand for liquid cooling is driven by the increasing power density of AI racks and regulatory requirements for data center efficiency, making liquid cooling a necessity [2] Group 2: Industry Procurement Model Changes - The procurement model in the global liquid cooling industry is shifting, with major cloud providers like Google moving towards direct procurement of complete liquid cooling solutions, creating new market opportunities for companies like Invec [3] - Invec has validated its full range of liquid cooling products with leading tech companies, positioning itself to capture significant market share as demand grows [3] Group 3: Core Advantages - Invec's full value chain integration in liquid cooling systems allows for performance optimization across components, distinguishing it from competitors focused on single components [4] - The company's international business has a gross margin approximately twice that of its domestic operations, enhancing its profitability as it increases its market share [5] Group 4: Revenue and Profit Growth - UBS has raised Invec's revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 21% and 64%, respectively, and net profit forecasts by 54% and 146%, anticipating a rapid increase in market share [6] - Revenue is projected to grow from 6.399 billion yuan in 2025 to 18.192 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 92.6%, and diluted EPS expected to rise significantly [6] - The EBIT margin is expected to increase from 12.3% in 2025 to 28.1% in 2027, driven by scale effects and product optimization [6] Group 5: Valuation Insights - Invec's current stock price corresponds to a 23x 2027E P/E, which is below its historical average and in line with the global industry median, despite its higher growth rates compared to peers [7] - The market has not fully priced Invec's growth potential, as it continues to be viewed through a traditional component-level lens rather than recognizing its system-level capabilities and high-margin international business [7]