Grasberg Setbacks Weigh on FCX's Q4 Volumes: What Lies Ahead?

Core Insights - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) reported better-than-expected financial results in Q4, driven by significant increases in copper and gold prices, although lower sales volumes negatively impacted performance [1][4] Sales Performance - Copper sales volumes decreased approximately 29% year-over-year to 709 million pounds, down from 977 million pounds in the previous quarter [1] - Gold sales volumes fell around 77% year-over-year, with only 80,000 ounces sold in Q4 [1] Operational Challenges - The decline in sales volumes was primarily due to the temporary suspension of operations at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia following a mud rush incident in September 2025 [2][8] - FCX's outlook for Q1 2026 anticipates minimal contributions from Indonesian operations, projecting copper sales volumes of 640 million pounds, reflecting a 10% sequential and 27% year-over-year decline [3][8] Industry Comparison - Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) reported a 2.8% increase in copper sales volumes year-over-year, selling 235,591 tons in Q4 [5] - BHP Group Limited (BHP) experienced a 2% year-over-year increase in copper sales, totaling approximately 504.5kt in Q2 of fiscal 2026 [6] Financial Metrics - FCX shares have increased by 55.3% over the past six months, compared to an 81.2% rise in the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry [7] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 27.13, which is a 6.7% premium to the industry average of 25.43 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FCX's earnings in 2026 and 2027 suggests year-over-year increases of 35.6% and 16.3%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [11]