Economic Overview - The report by KPMG indicates that China's economy is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a real GDP growth of 5.0% year-on-year, meeting the initial target growth rate [1] - Industrial production is expected to improve steadily, with manufacturing value-added growth of 6.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [1] Consumption Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7% year-on-year in 2025, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Despite a decline in retail sales in the fourth quarter, the service consumption maintains strong resilience, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.5%, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from the previous three quarters [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 3.8% year-on-year in 2025, marking the first annual negative growth since records began [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize in early 2026 due to fiscal support, while manufacturing investment may show marginal improvement as technology innovation and industrial upgrades are prioritized [3] Export Performance - Exports are anticipated to grow by 5.5% year-on-year in 2025, driven by trade partnerships with regions such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, contributing 5.0 percentage points to export growth [4] - High-end manufacturing categories, such as integrated circuits and new energy products, are expected to be the core growth engines for exports [4] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasizes higher quality economic growth, with macro policies expected to maintain a stable expansion, and a fiscal deficit rate around 4% [5] - Policies will focus on boosting domestic demand and optimizing supply, with increased support for projects aimed at enhancing consumption and lowering financing barriers for private enterprises [5]
毕马威：2025年中国经济总量达140万亿元保持韧性，2026年经济增速将维持稳健