解码马年主线：A股站稳4000点，金价涨势不变

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, China's economy is expected to experience moderate policy support and a structural focus on both "increase and decrease" and "supply and demand" to achieve reasonable growth [1][4] Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is crucial for maintaining stable economic operations and achieving high-quality development. The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The core drivers of economic growth in 2026 are expected to be a combination of policy-driven investment, domestic demand recovery, and resilient exports, forming a multi-faceted growth structure [3][4] A-share Market Performance - The A-share market is anticipated to stabilize around the 4000-point mark, which has shifted from a historical resistance level to a significant support level. Key drivers include policy and liquidity support, improvement in corporate earnings, and increased market confidence [5][6] - The overall profit growth rate for A-shares is projected to rise from 6% in 2025 to between 8% and 14% in 2026, with a notable recovery in non-financial corporate earnings [6] International Gold Price Trends - The international gold price is expected to continue its upward trend, with the London gold price experiencing a significant increase of 13.01% in January 2026, reaching above $5000 per ounce [8] - Factors supporting the rise in gold prices include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions, with expectations for gold prices to potentially reach between $5500 and $6000 per ounce in 2026 [9]