稀土年初暴涨打懵全球：镝铽冲顶，中美日竞速脱依赖能成吗

Demand and Supply Dynamics - The recent surge in rare earth prices, including dysprosium reaching $960 per kilogram and terbium exceeding $4000, is driven by increased demand from electric vehicles and defense spending, while supply constraints are exacerbated by China's export restrictions [1][3] - China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain is significant, controlling approximately 61% of global mining and 92% of refining, making it challenging for other countries to replicate this capability quickly [3][8] Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. is actively working to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths, with a proposed $12 billion plan to build a strategic reserve for critical minerals, supported by private funding and loans [5] - Japan is exploring deep-sea mining for rare earths, with estimates of 16 million tons of resources, but faces significant cost challenges in extraction and processing [5][6] Industry Challenges - The refining capacity for rare earths is predominantly located in China, posing a challenge for countries like Japan that lack large-scale refining facilities, potentially leading to continued reliance on Chinese processing [8] - European efforts to diversify imports of critical materials have shown limited progress, with many key resources still heavily reliant on China [8][10] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to gradually diversify away from China, with companies like MP Materials and Lynas expanding production, but achieving significant scale may take five to ten years [10] - The ongoing volatility in prices and the strategic decisions by companies regarding inventory and supply chain adjustments remain critical issues for the industry [10]