降息泡汤了，准备迎接第二轮下跌，昨天美国公布的非农就业数据大超预期，达到了13万人，失业率也大幅下降

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a strong job market, contradicting expectations for an interest rate cut, which may lead to increased pressure on precious metals and equities [1][3][9]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - February's non-farm employment surged by 130,000, leading to a significant drop in the unemployment rate, which challenges the rationale for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [3][5]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in June have diminished, with swap market data showing a retreat from such bets, resulting in rising U.S. Treasury yields [3][5]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The recent rebound in gold and silver prices appears to be short-lived, with historical data suggesting that silver can experience drastic declines, including drops of 20% in a single day [5][11]. - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by sustained employment and wage growth, undermines the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals against rising Treasury yields [7][9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Predictions - The market sentiment is fragile, with many investors clinging to the illusion of an impending rate cut; a realization of this illusion could trigger significant sell-offs in precious metals [9][12]. - The historical trend shows that tight labor markets are often associated with prolonged high interest rates, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's focus remains on controlling inflation rather than supporting equity markets [9][12].