Group 1 - The market has recognized that even leading AI companies like Google require significant capital expenditures, shifting software companies from a light model to a heavy model [1] - From a value investment perspective, the light model is preferred over the heavy model due to the flexibility to stop losses, whereas heavy models involve substantial sunk costs [1] - Traditional views classify chips as heavy models and software/internet services as light models, but software companies are now investing heavily in AI, which may align their valuation models more closely with manufacturing [1] Group 2 - The core of AI, whether for B2B or B2C, is application, as this drives user payments, indicating that software and internet applications will ultimately yield higher profits than chips [1] - The current software ecosystem is experiencing changes, leading to uncertainty about which companies will succeed or fail, even for dominant players like Google, which still face a 10% risk of being outperformed [2] - Investment sentiment is currently adverse to uncertainty, resulting in a significant devaluation of software and internet stocks, although this may be an overreaction [2]
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Ge Long Hui·2026-02-12 21:28