Dear Coinbase Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for February 12

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase's valuation metrics suggest it may be undervalued compared to peers, with a forward P/E of mid-teens and price/sales ratio of 6×, both significantly lower than industry averages [1] Company Overview - Coinbase Global, with a market cap of $43 billion, is the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, providing a platform for trading, staking, and custody of digital assets [3] - The company serves both retail and institutional clients, boasting millions of verified users and trillions of dollars in assets on its platform [3] Recent Performance - COIN stock experienced a significant rally last year, peaking near $445 in mid-July before declining to the mid-$200s by year-end [2] - The stock has recently traded around $160-$165, reflecting a 32% drop in January due to broader crypto market weakness [2][5] Upcoming Earnings - Coinbase is set to release its Q4 2025 results on February 12, which is anticipated to be a critical event for investors [4][6] - Analysts expect Q4 revenue to be approximately $1.84 billion, down about 20% year-over-year, with EPS estimates around $0.99, significantly lower than the previous year's $3.50 [6] Guidance and Expectations - Management has guided for subscription and services revenue of $710 to $790 million for Q4, indicating a slight increase from Q3 [7] - Analysts are closely monitoring management's tone and guidance during the earnings call, as any signs of demand softening could negatively impact the stock [7] New Initiatives - Coinbase has launched new offerings, including a stock-trading service and a prediction-markets platform, aiming to enhance user engagement and diversify revenue sources [9][10] - The company is also acquiring The Clearing Company, marking its 10th acquisition in the year, which is part of its strategy to broaden its service offerings [10] Analyst Sentiment - Wall Street's consensus on Coinbase is a "Moderate Buy," with a 12-month target averaging around $337, suggesting over 100% upside potential from current levels [12] - Analysts have varying price targets, with Goldman Sachs raising its target to $310, while Cantor Fitzgerald and Mizuho have set lower targets due to anticipated 2025 weakness [12][13] Market Trends - Analysts emphasize the importance of Coinbase's new initiatives in driving user engagement, which could help stabilize its valuation amid volatile crypto trading [14][15] - The company's future performance is closely tied to cryptocurrency market trends, with the upcoming earnings call seen as a pivotal moment for its stock [15]