特朗普打出“王炸”，或将中国踢出美元体系，赖清德却高兴不起来

Group 1 - The core objective of the recently passed Taiwan Protection Act by the U.S. House of Representatives is to exclude China from the SWIFT global financial system, aiming to cut off China's access to the global dollar settlement system [1][3] - Over 90% of cross-border trade is settled in U.S. dollars through SWIFT, and the U.S. believes that severing this connection will pressure China on the Taiwan issue [3] - China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.4 trillion, and the use of the CIPS cross-border payment system has increased, with a 43% year-on-year growth in transaction volume in 2024, making it a reliable alternative to SWIFT [3][12] Group 2 - Financial sanctions have historically been a double-edged sword, as seen in the cases of Russia and Iran, where such measures led to accelerated de-dollarization globally [5][7] - The U.S. has previously removed countries from SWIFT, but these actions have not resulted in complete isolation; instead, they have prompted countries to seek alternative trade methods [7] - The U.S. financial decoupling from China could lead to significant repercussions for American businesses, as many rely on the Chinese market and supply chains [15] Group 3 - Taiwan's economy is highly dependent on exports to mainland China, and any disruption in financial channels could severely impact Taiwanese businesses [10] - The U.S. has a history of abandoning allies, which raises concerns for Taiwan regarding the reliability of American support [10] - China's long-term strategy includes reducing reliance on U.S. debt and increasing gold reserves, indicating preparedness against U.S. financial coercion [12][15] Group 4 - The global share of the Chinese yuan in foreign exchange transactions has risen to 8.6%, reflecting a growing willingness among countries to settle in yuan [13] - China's complete industrial system and large consumer market position it to withstand external financial pressures, suggesting that U.S. attempts to isolate China may backfire [13][17] - The narrative of U.S. financial dominance is challenged by China's resilience and industrial strength, indicating a shift in the global financial landscape [15][17]