Ge Long Hui·2026-02-12 22:52Core Viewpoint - Bilibili is expected to capture more advertising budgets from the gaming and AI application sectors in 2026, leading to revenue and profit growth [1][3] Gaming Industry - The number of game licenses in 2025 is projected to increase by nearly 60% year-on-year, excluding casual games, according to the National Press and Publication Administration [2] - In 2026, competition for promotional traffic among leading game developers is expected to intensify, resulting in an overall increase in industry budgets [2] - Bilibili's gaming advertising growth is estimated to exceed 30% year-on-year in 2026 [2][3] AI Applications - Advertising budgets from AI application advertisers are anticipated to significantly increase in 2026, with a high overlap between Bilibili users and the core audience of AI applications [2] - In 2025, AI application advertisers are expected to invest between 100 million to 200 million in Bilibili, with a potential to acquire 3 million activated users based on a budget allocation of 50% for performance ads [2][3] - The total advertising budget for AI applications on Bilibili in 2026 is projected to be between 500 million to 600 million, allowing for the acquisition of approximately 12 million activated users [2][3] Traffic Supply - Bilibili's Daily Active Users (DAU) is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in 2026, with improvements in AI technology enhancing ad matching accuracy [4] - The ad load is projected to increase from 6.7% to 7.1%, and ECPM is expected to grow by 5% [4] - Native and brand advertising revenues are anticipated to be more affected by macroeconomic conditions, with revenue growth expected to be in single digits for 2026 [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Bilibili from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 30.2 billion, 32.6 billion, and 36.5 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.5 billion, 3.4 billion, and 4.6 billion [3][4] - The rating for Bilibili is maintained at "outperform the market" [3][4]