美国CBO预测2036财年赤字升至3.1万亿美元 财政赤字推高市场利率水平

Core Insights - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office predicts that the federal deficit will continue to expand over the next decade, with interest payments increasingly comprising a larger share of total government spending, thereby raising current market interest rates [1] Group 1: Deficit Projections - By fiscal year 2036, the annual federal deficit is expected to reach $3.1 trillion, accounting for 6.7% of GDP, while for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, the deficit is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP [1] - The need for the Treasury to finance through the issuance of government bonds, treasury bills, and notes arises when government spending consistently exceeds tax revenue, leading to increased debt supply that often requires higher yields to attract investors [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Interest Rates - If the market had more confidence in the U.S. government's ability to control spending, reduce the deficit, and curb inflation, the Federal Reserve's target policy rate could be approximately 100 basis points lower than the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% [2] - The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is relatively controlled, partly due to the Treasury's increased reliance on short-term treasury bills to manage financing costs [2] Group 3: Impact on Affordability and Public Services - The expanding fiscal deficit and rising interest costs may undermine the affordability goals emphasized by the Trump administration, as higher borrowing costs increase personal financing costs for mortgages and auto loans, directly impacting housing and daily consumption affordability [3] - The Treasury's need to continuously increase bond supply could lead to uncontrolled yield increases if investor demand weakens, further raising overall financing costs and affecting the affordability of housing and living expenses [3]