春节“钱线”｜私募真金白银“投票”，落袋为安还是持股过年

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a positive trend, with many institutions advocating for "holding stocks during the festival" as a favorable strategy for investors [3][5][6]. Group 1: Institutional Perspectives - Multiple brokerage firms have reached a consensus that "holding stocks during the festival" is a better choice this year compared to previous years, citing unchanged market fundamentals [6][7]. - Guotai Junan's strategy team emphasizes the importance of confidence and suggests that the market may rebound after the festival [7]. - The spring market outlook is also influencing institutional views, with expectations of improved economic and profit forecasts during the festival period [8]. Group 2: Private Equity Insights - Over 60% of private equity firms are leaning towards heavy or full positions during the festival, indicating a belief in structural opportunities despite market fluctuations [12]. - A survey shows that 70% of private equity firms are optimistic about the post-festival market, expecting stabilization and a resumption of upward trends [14]. - The majority of private equity firms favor low-valuation blue-chip stocks and technology growth sectors, indicating a strategic focus on balanced investment approaches [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Historical Trends - Historical data suggests that the probability of A-share gains post-festival is high, with many investors expected to complete their positioning before the festival and enter the market afterward [15]. - The market has undergone sufficient technical consolidation and chip exchange before the festival, creating conditions for a rebound [15]. - The upcoming policy window and expectations for stable growth policies are likely to refocus the market on economic recovery themes [15][16].