Group 1: Gold Market - The non-farm payroll report released on February 11 indicates strong resilience in the U.S. job market, leading to a decrease in expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in March is 92.2%, with a 7.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut; by April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 25.3% [2] - Technical analysis shows that gold has been in a wide range of fluctuations after a significant drop at the end of last month, with a bearish outlook if it breaks below the support level of $4,980 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with Trump aims to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, warning of potential military action if negotiations fail, which poses risks to global oil supply [4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global oil demand growth will be lower than previously expected, with a surplus projected to exceed 3.7 million barrels per day [4] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices fell significantly on February 12, breaking the important support level of $63.70, with a high likelihood of testing the $61.50 level [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have maintained a range of $5.55 to $6.05 after a significant drop at the end of last month, with attention on the potential breakout direction [7] - The immediate resistance level to watch is $5.83 [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows a bullish trend, accelerating upward on February 6, and is currently maintaining high-level fluctuations [8] - There is a significant possibility of testing the support level at 56,100, and if it breaks, the next target would be 55,300 [8]
百利好早盘分析：降息概率走低 黄金短线下挫
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-13 02:00