今晚九点半，美国1月CPI登场：通胀故事进入“慢节奏”？

Core Viewpoint - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a stabilization of high inflation levels, indicating that inflation is controlled but not rapidly declining, which will influence the assessment of the U.S. inflation trajectory and monetary policy environment for 2026 [1][4]. Inflation Trends - The January CPI is projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, remaining stable compared to December, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to decline to around 2.5% [4]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is also anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, with a slight year-over-year decrease to 2.5% from 2.6% [4]. Price Pressures - Despite the stabilization, price pressures persist, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4]. - Economists suggest that the Federal Reserve may need to accept a slow decline in inflation rather than a rapid return to target levels [4]. Commodity Prices - The January CPI will reflect a divergence among goods, services, and housing, with core commodity prices expected to exert upward pressure on overall inflation [5]. - Factors such as tariffs and seasonal price adjustments at the beginning of the year are likely to contribute to a temporary increase in commodity prices [5]. Housing Market Dynamics - Housing remains a critical buffer for mid-term inflation, with rental prices showing a year-over-year decline of 1.4% and a significant drop from peak levels [6]. - The rental market is experiencing increased vacancy rates and longer average vacancy times, indicating a potential continuation of downward pressure on rents [6]. Future Inflation Outlook - Short-term inflation may see a temporary rise due to inventory replenishment and increased transportation costs, but this is expected to be predictable and phase-based [7]. - The Federal Reserve's focus is shifting towards the labor market, with recent strong employment data influencing market expectations regarding interest rate decisions [7].